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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2011

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1.1: World GDP Growth

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth

Table 2.1: Policy Rates

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Table 2.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 2.5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth

Table 3.3: LNG Projects Commencing in 2011

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 5.2: Productivity Growth

Table 5.3: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table A1: Japanese Motor Vehicle Producers

Table D1: Average Duration of Short Positions in ASX 200 Companies

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Table 1.1: World GDP Growth Year-average, per cent(a)
  2009 2010 2011 2012
      IMF forecasts(b)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the June World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States −3.5 3.0 2.5 2.7
Euro area −4.2 1.8 2.0 1.7
Japan −6.3 4.0 −0.7 2.9
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
East Asia (excl China and Japan)(c) 0.1 7.7 5.2 5.0
India 6.8 10.1 8.2 7.8
World −0.8 5.1 4.3 4.5
Australia's trading partners(d) −0.2 6.8 4.7 5.5
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Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth(a) SDR terms, per cent
  Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices components except oil; latest available
(b) RBA estimates for recent months
(c) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk commodities(b) 2 24
– Iron ore −2 19
– Coking coal 5 32
– Thermal coal 12 26
Rural 0 25
– Beef −3 14
– Cotton −30 27
– Wheat −2 21
– Wool 6 76
Base metals 3 12
– Aluminium −4 8
– Copper 10 22
– Lead 9 8
– Nickel −2 4
– Zinc 13 8
Gold 14 33
Oil(c) −3 22
– US$ terms −5 27
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Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent		   Most
recent
change		 Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.50 ↑ Jul 11 50
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 12.50 ↑ Jul 11 375
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 6.56 ↑ Jul 11 125
India 8.00 ↑ Jul 11 325
Indonesia 6.75 ↑ Feb 11 25
Israel 3.25 ↑ May 11 275
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 100
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 –
Norway 2.25 ↑ May 11 100
Russia 8.25 ↑ Apr 11 50
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.25 ↑ Jun 11 125
Sweden 2.00 ↑ Jul 11 175
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 –
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 63
Thailand 3.25 ↑ Jul 11 200
Turkey 6.25 ↓ Jan 11 –
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
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Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end 2010 Since previous Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 3 −7
– S&P 500 0 −6
– NASDAQ 2 −5
Euro area
– STOXX −11 −15
United Kingdom
– FTSE −5 −7
Japan
– Nikkei −6 −4
Canada
– TSE 300 −5 −6
Australia
– ASX 200 −9 −9
China
– China A −5 −7
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −4 −5
– Latin America −16 −8
– Emerging Europe −3 −6
– World −5 −8
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Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies Per cent
  Over past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Swedish krona −10 4
European euro −7 4
South African rand −7 2
Mexican peso −6 2
New Taiwan dollar −9 1
UK pound sterling −3 1
Australian dollar −15 1
Canadian dollar −6 1
Malaysian ringgit −6 0
Indian rupee −4 0
Indonesian rupiah −5 −1
Chinese renminbi −5 −1
Thai baht −7 −1
Philippine peso −6 −1
South Korean won −9 −2
Japanese yen −8 −2
Singapore dollar −10 −2
Brazilian real −11 −4
New Zealand dollar −14 −7
Swiss franc −25 −10
Majors TWI −7 1
Broad TWI −7 0
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Table 2.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves As at end June 2011
  Three-month-ended change Level
  US$ equivalent
(billions)		 Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
(a) RBA estimates of official reserve assets excluding gold
Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; RBA
China 153 5 3,197
Japan 20 2 1,061
Russia 18 4 472
Taiwan 8 2 400
Brazil(a) 18 6 327
South Korea 5 2 299
Thailand 2 1 177
South Africa 0 1 41
Chile(a) 3 11 33
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Table 2.5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Per cent
  Change over
past year		 Change since previous Statement Deviation from post-float average
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; W/M Reuters
European euro 8 3 13
South African rand 9 1 59
UK pound sterling 14 0 45
Canadian dollar 10 0 10
US dollar 17 −1 46
Malaysian ringgit 10 −1 42
Indian rupee 13 −1 75
Indonesian rupiah 11 −1 135
Chinese renminbi 11 −1 46
Thai baht 8 −1 34
South Korean won 6 −2 63
Japanese yen 8 −2 −10
Singapore dollar 5 −2 4
New Zealand dollar 1 −8 2
Swiss franc −12 −10 −22
TWI 10 −1 29
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Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  March
quarter 2011		 Year to March
quarter 2011
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 1.3 3.3
− Private demand 1.3 3.8
− Public demand 1.1 1.8
Change in inventories(a) −0.5 −0.2
GNE 0.8 3.1
Net exports(a) −2.4 −2.8
GDP −1.2 1.0
Nominal GDP 0.7 7.1
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Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
3 months to
March 2011		 3 months to
June 2011		 Year to
June 2011
(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −1.1 −0.1 −1.9
APM −0.9 −1.5 −2.6
RP Data-Rismark −1.8 −0.9 −2.0
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.3 0.4 0.0
RP Data-Rismark(a) −1.7 −1.1 −2.4
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Table 3.3:
LNG Projects Commencing in 2011
US$ billion
Source: publicly available information
Committed
Gladstone LNG 16
Queensland Curtis LNG 15
Australia Pacific LNG (Phase 1) 14
Prelude LNG 12
Likely
Wheatstone LNG 25
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Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
end July 2011		 May
Statement		 End
July 2010
(a) Average of the major banks’ discounted package rates on $250 000 full-doc loans
Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate  4.75 0.00 0.25
Housing loans(a) 7.04 −0.05 0.29
Personal loans  13.10 0.01 0.31
Small business
Residentially secured
– Term loans 8.99 0.00 0.40
– Overdraft  9.86 0.00 0.40
Average actual rate  8.81 0.00 0.27
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 7.05 0.06 0.22
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Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to
June 2011
March
quarter 2011		 June
quarter 2011
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.5 0.1 2.7
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.4 6.3
– Investor housing 0.4 0.3 5.4
– Personal 0.3 −0.3 0.3
– Business 0.5 −0.4 −2.4
Broad money 0.6 0.3 6.8
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Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
Quarterly   Year-ended
March quarter 2011 June quarter 2011 March quarter 2011 June quarter 2011
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 1.6 0.9   3.3 3.6
– Tradables 1.8 1.3   3.3 3.6
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)		 −0.6 0.5   −1.6 −1.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)		 1.1 0.6   3.3 3.5
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.9 0.9   2.3 2.7
Weighted median 0.8 0.9   2.2 2.7
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.7 0.5   2.6 2.4
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Table 5.2: Productivity Growth
Annual average, per cent
1975/76–2003/04 2004/05–2010/11(a)
(a) Labour productivity includes estimates for 2010/11; multifactor productivity is calculated to 2009/10
(b) Market sector estimates of productivity are more reliable as industries for which productivity is most difficult to estimate are excluded. Data prior to 1994/95 are for ‘selected industries’, which is a slightly narrower definition of the market sector than the current ABS definition.
Sources: ABS; RBA
Market sector industries(b)
Labour productivity 2.2 0.9
Multifactor productivity 1.0 −0.8
All industries
Labour productivity 2.0 0.6
Multifactor productivity 1.1 −0.1
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Table 5.3: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
Year to December 2011   Year to December 2012
February
2011		 May
2011		 August
2011		   May
2011		 August
2011
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 3.3 3.4 3.4   3.0 3.7
Union officials(b) 3.2 3.3 3.4   3.1 3.1
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Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.07, TWI at 77 and Tapis crudeoil price at US$118 per barrel
Sources: ABS; RBA
  Year-ended
Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013
GDP growth 2.7 1¼ 3¼ 4½ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾
Non-farm GDP growth 2.2 1 3¼ 4½  3¾ 3¾ 3¾
CPI inflation 2.7 3.6 3½ 2½ 3½ 3¾ 3¼
Underlying inflation 2¼ 2¾ 3¼ 3 3¼ 3¼ 3¼
CPI inflation
excl carbon price		 2.7 3.6 3½ 2½ 3 3 3¼
Underlying inflation
excl carbon price		 2¼ 2¾ 3¼ 3 3 3 3¼
Year-average
2010 2010/11 2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013
GDP growth 2.7 1¾ 2 4 4½ 3¾ 3¾
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Table A1: Japanese Motor Vehicle Producers
Market share and supply-chain effects, per cent
  Japanese vehicle brands in total domestic production Imported Japanese vehicles in total sales   Motor  vehicle production Motor  vehicle sales
  2009 2010 Growth over 2 months to May 2011
Thailand 86 6   −38 −32
Taiwan 84 15   −14 −35
Australia 43 34   −13 −12
Canada 39 12   −12 −16
United Kingdom 50 5   −8(a) 1
United States 37 13   −7 −10
Euro area 3 4   1 0
(a) Change from March to April; production rebounded in May
Sources: CEIC; European Automobile Manufacturers' Association; FCAI/VFACTS; International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers; RBA; Thomson Financial
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Table D1: Average Duration of Short Positions in ASX 200 Companies By sector, number of days(a)
  Since previous Statement June 2010–April 2011
Financials 9.0 9.8
– Major banks 8.2 10.0
– Other financials 10.7 9.5
Non-financials 12.9 13.6
– Resources 10.9 11.7
– Other non-financials 15.7 16.8
ASX 200 11.6 12.4
(a) Outstanding short positions divided by short turnover
Sources: ASIC; ASX; Bloomberg; RBA
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