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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2009

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP Growth

Table 2: Policy Rates

Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 6: Demand and Output Growth

Table 7: National Dwelling Price Growth

Table 8: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 9: Credit Aggregates

Table 10: Sectoral movements in the ASX 200

Table 11: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 13: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table B1: Household Debt Servicing

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Table 1: World GDP Growth Year-average, per cent(a)
  2008 2009 2010
    IMF forecasts(d)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
(d) Forecasts from the October World Economic Outlook
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 0.4 −2.7 1.5
Euro area 0.7 −4.2 0.3
Japan −0.7 −5.4 1.7
China 9.0 8.5 9.0
Other east Asia(b) 2.7 −1.2 3.8
India 7.3 5.4 6.4
World 3.0 −1.1 3.1
Australia’s trading partners(c) 2.7 −0.8 3.7
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Table 2: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		Most recent
change 		Change over easing phase
Basis points
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 ↓ 325
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 40
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 513
 
Brazil 8.75 ↓ Jul 09 ↓ 500
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
China 5.31 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 216
India 4.75 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09 ↓ 300
Israel 0.75 ↑ Aug 09 ↓ 375
Malaysia 2.00 ↓ Feb 09 ↓ 150
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 ↓ 375
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 575
Norway 1.50 ↑ Oct 09 ↓ 450
Russia 9.50 ↓ Oct 09 ↓ 350
South Africa 7.00 ↓ Aug 09 ↓ 500
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Feb 09 ↓ 325
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 09 ↓ 450
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 250
Thailand 1.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 250
Turkey 6.75 ↓ Oct 09 ↓ 1,000
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 525
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Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices Per cent
  Peak to
recent trough 		Since recent
trough 		Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones −54 50 6
– S&P 500 −57 55 4
– NASDAQ −56 62 3
Euro area
– STOXX −62 53 6
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 45 10
Japan
– Nikkei −61 40 −4
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 46 0
China
– China A −72 83 −9
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 44 6
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 86 4
– Latin America −57 87 9
– Emerging Europe −71 82 9
– World −56 49 3
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies Per cent
  Past year Since recent peak
(March 2009)
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System
Mexican peso 6 −15
Chinese renminbi 0 0
Taiwan dollar 0 −7
Indian rupee −1 −9
Philippine peso −2 −2
Malaysian ringgit −3 −8
British pound −4 −17
Thai baht −4 −8
Singapore dollar −5 −10
Korean won −6 −24
Canadian dollar −8 −18
Swedish krona −8 −24
Japanese yen −9 −8
Indonesian rupiah −13 −21
Swiss franc −13 −12
Euro −13 −15
New Zealand dollar −17 −32
Brazilian real −18 −28
South African rand −21 −31
Australian dollar −23 −31
Majors TWI −9 −15
Broad TWI −5 −12
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Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Percentage change
  Since recent peak
(July 2008) 		Since recent trough
(March 2009) 		Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
British pound 12 24 24
Korean won 8 6 56
Indian rupee 2 31 62
Euro 0 22 −7
Malaysian ringgit −1 32 40
Canadian dollar −1 20 3
New Zealand dollar −2 −2 2
Indonesian rupiah −3 14 135
Singapore dollar −4 29 2
South African rand −6 7 57
Thai baht −6 33 29
US dollar −7 44 26
Chinese renminbi −7 44 33
Swiss franc −7 25 −13
Japanese yen −21 34 −12
TWI −5 30 19
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Table 6: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  March
quarter 2009		 June
quarter 2009		 Year to June
quarter 2009
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand −1.1 0.8 0.7
GNE −0.9 1.0 −0.4
Net exports(a) 2.2 −0.2 3.3
Statistical discrepancy(a) −0.9 −0.1 −2.3
GDP 0.4 0.6 0.6
Non-farm GDP 0.5 1.1 0.5
GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade −1.4 −1.1 −2.1
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Table 7: National Dwelling Price Growth Per cent
  June
quarter 2009		 September
quarter 2009		 Year to September
quarter 2009
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
House prices
ABS 4.2 4.2 6.2
APM 3.6 3.7 6.5
RP Data-Rismark 2.7 2.7 5.5
Apartment prices
APM 2.9 3.3 8.2
RP Data-Rismark 2.5 2.2 7.1
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Table 8: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates Per cent
  Current level   Change since:
  4 November 2009   Jul 2009 Aug 2008
(a) RBA estimate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 3.50   0.50 −3.75
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 5.61   0.43 −3.37
Prime low-doc 6.09   0.20 −3.40
Personal loans
Margin loans 8.16   0.15 −2.42
Standard credit cards 18.12   0.21 −1.81
Low-rate credit cards 12.09   0.13 −0.84
Unsecured term loans 13.77   0.25 −1.13
Home equity loans 6.21   0.30 −3.37
Small business
Term loans        
Residentially secured 7.48   0.38 −2.61
Other security 8.27   0.38 −2.43
Overdraft        
Residentially secured 8.30   0.38 −2.61
Other security 9.19   0.38 −2.40
Average actual rate(a) 7.51   0.36 −2.78
Large business
Average actual rate,
variable and bill funding(a) 		5.54   0.36 −3.07
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Table 9: Credit Aggregates Average monthly growth, per cent
  December
quarter
2008 		March
quarter
2009 		June
quarter
2009 		September
quarter
2009
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Household 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
– Owner-occupier housing 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
– Investor housing 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
– Personal −1.0 −0.4 −0.5 0.0
Business −0.1 −0.1 −0.6 −0.8
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Table 10: Sectoral movements in the ASX 200 Per cent change since
  November 2007
peak 		March 2009
trough 		Previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
Resources −25 35 −1
Financials −39 67 10
Other −34 30 4
ASX 200 −34 44 5
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Table 11: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
  Quarterly Year-ended
  June
quarter
2009 		September
quarter
2009 		June
quarter
2009 		September
quarter
2009
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.3
– Tradables 0.7 0.2 0.0 −0.5
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) 1.0 0.3 1.9 2.1
– Non-tradables 0.4 1.5 2.4 2.3
Selected underlying measures
Weighted median 0.8 0.8 4.2 3.8
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.8 3.6 3.2
CPI ex volatile items(a) and
deposit & loan facilities 		0.8 0.9 3.6 3.5
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Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
  Year to June 2010   Year to June 2011
  May
2009 		August
2009 		November
2009 		  August
2009 		November
2009
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.3 2.3 2.3   2.5 2.5
Union officials(b) 2.5 2.5 2.0   3.0 3.0
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Table 13: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  June 2009 Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012
(a) Actual GDP and inflation data for June 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.91, TWI at 70, WTI crude oil price at US$85 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$88 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 0.6 1¾ 2¼ 3¼ 3¼ 3¼ 3½
Non-farm GDP growth 0.5 1¾ 2 3¼ 3¼ 3¼ 3½
CPI inflation 1.5 2 2½ 2¼ 2¼ 2½ 2½
Underlying inflation 3¾ 3¼ 2½ 2¼ 2¼ 2½ 2½
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Table B1: Household Debt Servicing Percentage point change of ratio to disposable income, since recent peak
  Australia
(peak: June 2008) 		United Kingdom
(peak: December 2007) 		United States
(peak: September 2007)
Sources: National Sources; RBA
Debt-servicing ratio −5.1 −3.1 −1.0
Contributions from
Mortgage interest −3.9 −2.6 −0.1
Non-mortgage interest −0.8 0.0 −0.5
Disposable income −0.4 −0.5 −0.4
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