RBA: SMP May 2009-List of tables

List of tables

Table 1: Expected Fiscal Balances in Selected Countries

Table 2: World GDP Growth

Table 3: Policy Rates

Table 4: Emerging Market Policy Rates

Table 5: Government-guaranteed Bank Bonds

Table 6: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 7: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 8: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 9: Demand and Output

Table 10: National Housing Prices

Table 11: Relative performance of Australian Exports

Table 12: Intermediaries’ Variables Lending Rates

Table 13: Credit Aggregates

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 16: Output and Inflation Forecasts

Table B1: Australian Resource Export Volumes

Table 1: Expected Fiscal Balances in Selected Countries^(a)
Per cent of GDP
	2007 and 2008 Average	2009	2010
(a) Estimates for the United States and the United Kingdom are from the Congressional Budget Office and Her Majesty’s Treasury, respectively, and are for the relevant fiscal years for each country; other figures are RBA estimates based on national and international sources. Data for the United States refer to federal government fiscal balance.
United States	−2¼	−13	−9½
United Kingdom	−4¼	−12½	−12
Germany	−¼	−4¾	−6
Japan	−4	−10	−9¾
China	¼	−3½	−3½
Korea	2¼	−3¼	−4½
Indonesia	−½	−2½	−2

Table 2: World GDP Growth
Year average, Per cent^(a)
	2007	2008	2009	2010
			IMF forecasts^(d)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified (b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates (c) Weighted using merchandise export shares (d) Forecasts from the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States	2.0	1.1	−2.8	0.0
Euro area	2.7	0.7	−4.2	−0.4
Japan	2.4	−0.7	−6.2	0.5
China	13	9.0	6.5	7.5
Other east Asia^(b)	5.8	2.8	−3.4	1.4
India	9.2	7.4	4.5	5.6
World	5.2	3.2	−1.3	1.9
Australia’s trading partners^(c)	5.6	2.8	−2.0	2.1

Table 3: Policy Rates
	Current level	Most recent change	Change since start of easing phase
	Per cent	Most recent change	Basis points
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
United States	0.125	↓ Dec 08	↓ 513
Euro area	1.25	↓ Apr 09	↓ 300
Japan	0.10	↓ Dec 08	↓ 40
United Kingdom	0.50	↓ Mar 09	↓ 525
Canada	0.25	↓ Apr 09	↓ 425
Sweden	0.50	↓ Apr 09	↓ 425
Switzerland	0.25	↓ Mar 09	↓ 250
New Zealand	2.50	↓ Apr 09	↓ 575

Table 4: Emerging Market Policy Rates
	Current level	Change since previous Statement	Change since start of easing phase
	Per cent	Basis points	Basis points
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Brazil	10.25	↓ 250	↓ 350
Chile	1.75	↓ 550	↓ 650
Czech Republic	1.75	↓ 50	↓ 200
Iceland	15.50	↓ 250	↓ 250
India	4.75	↓ 75	↓ 425
Indonesia	7.25	↓ 100	↓ 225
Israel	0.50	↓ 50	↓ 375
Malaysia	2.00	↓ 50	↓ 150
Mexico	6.00	↓ 175	↓ 225
Philippines	4.50	↓ 50	↓ 150
Poland	3.75	↓ 50	↓ 225
Russia	12.50	↓ 50	↓ 50
South Africa	8.50	↓ 300	↓ 350
South Korea	2.00	↓ 50	↓ 325
Taiwan	1.25	↓ 25	↓ 238
Thailand	1.25	↓ 75	↓ 250
Turkey	9.75	↓ 325	↓ 700

Table 5: Government-guaranteed Bank Bonds^(a)
	Issuance
	US$ billion
(a) May exclude some private placements Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States	259.4
United Kingdom	120.7
France	82.9
Australia	61.3
Germany	41.2
Netherlands	38.4
Spain	36.6
Austria	19.0
Ireland	17.9
Sweden	17.8
Portugal	4.3
Norway	4.0
Switzerland	3.0
Greece	1.3
New Zealand	1.2
South Korea	1.0
Total	710.0

Table 7: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
	Past year	Since previous Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; US Federal Reserve
New Zealand	36	−13
Sweden	32	−5
United Kingdom	30	−4
Brazil	28	−8
Mexico	25	–9
South Korea	25	−8
Australia	27	−14
India	21	2
Euro area	16	−4
Canada	16	−5
Indonesia	13	−11
Philippines	13	1
Malaysia	12	−3
Thailand	11	1
South Africa	11	−17
Taiwan	9	−1
Singapore	8	−2
Switzerland	8	−2
China	−2	0
Japan	−6	10
Majors TWI	14	−2
Broad TWI	14	−1

Table 8: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
	Past year	Since previous Statement	Deviation from post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
New Zealand	6	0	4
United Kingdom	3	11	12
South Korea	−2	6	41
India	−5	16	42
Euro area	−8	10	−15
Canada	−8	8	−7
Indonesia	−11	2	117
Malaysia	−11	13	20
Thailand	−12	15	12
South Africa	−12	−3	43
Singapore	−14	12	−12
Switzerland	−15	11	−21
United States	−21	15	4
China	−23	15	10
Japan	−26	24	−22
TWI	−15	13	4

Table 9: Demand and Output
Percentage change
	September quarter 2008	December quarter 2008	Year to December quarter 2008
(a) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy (b) Contribution to GDP growth Sources: ABS; RBA
Domestic final demand	0.3	0.1	2.6
GNE^(a)	0.5	–2.0	0.1
Net exports^(b)	−0.4	1.5	0.2
GDP	0.1	−0.5	0.3
Non-farm GDP	−0.2	−0.8	0.0
GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade	1.5	–1.2	3.9

Table 10: National Housing Prices
Percentage change
	December quarter 2008	March quarter 2009	Year to March quarter 2009
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
House prices
ABS	−1.2	−2.2	−6.7
RP Data-Rismark	−1.0	−0.1	−3.8
APM	−0.5	0.1	−3.5
Apartment prices
RP Data-Rismark	−0.1	0.9	−0.9
APM	−0.2	0.4	−1.7

Table 11: Relative performance of Australian exports
Per cent
	Growth in export volumes	Share of merchandise exports (2007/08)
	June to December quarter	Rural and resources	Manufactures
(a) Merchandise exports only Sources: CEIC; Eurostat; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Japan	−13	4	96
South Korea	−9	10	90
Euro area	−7	21	79
New Zealand	−6	67	33
United States	−6	22	78
Canada	−6	61	39
United Kingdom	−4	21	79
China^(a)	−3	5	95
Australia	−1	81	19

Table 12: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
	Current level	Change since:
	5 May 2009	End Jan 2009	End Aug 2008	End Jul 2007
(a) RBA estimate Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate	3.00	−1.25	−4.25	−3.25
Housing loans
Prime full-doc
Banks	5.14	−1.07	−3.83	−2.32
Credit unions and building societies	5.27	−1.10	−3.73	−2.27
Mortgage originators	5.58	−0.93	−3.64	−1.90
Prime low-doc
Banks	5.90	−1.00	−3.55	−1.86
Mortgage originators	6.49	−0.73	−3.34	−1.31
Non-conforming	9.40	−1.00	−2.51	0.24
Personal loans
Margin loans	8.01	−0.92	−2.57	−0.96
Standard credit cards	17.9	−0.71	−2.03	0.12
Low-rate credit cards	12.02	−0.23	−0.91	0.85
Unsecured term loans	13.52	−0.57	−1.38	0.91
Home equity loans	5.89	−1.04	−3.69	−2.33
Small business
Term loans
Residentially secured	7.08	−1.20	−3.01	−1.22
Other security	7.90	−1.11	−2.80	−1.00
Overdraft
Residentially secured	7.90	−1.20	−3.01	−1.15
Other security	8.81	−1.11	−2.77	−0.90
Average actual rate^(a)	7.21	−1.26	−2.95	−1.43
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding^(a)	4.88	−0.98	−3.75	−2.44

Table 13: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
	June quarter 2008	September quarter 2008	December quarter 2008	March quarter 2009
Source: RBA
Total credit	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.2
Household	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5
– Owner-occupier housing	0.7	0.5	0.7	0.8
– Investor housing	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.2
– Personal	−0.1	−0.6	−1.0	−0.4
Business	0.5	0.9	0.0	−0.1

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
	Quarterly		Year-ended
	December quarter 2008	March quarter 2009	December quarter 2008	March quarter 2009
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI	−0.3	0.1	3.7	2.5
– Tradables	−1.8	0.5	1.2	0.8
– Tradables (ex food & fuel)	−0.2	0.9	0.9	2.0
– Non-tradables	0.6	−0.1	5.4	3.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median	0.9	1.2	4.5	4.4
Trimmed mean	0.6	1.0	4.2	3.9
CPI ex volatile items^(a) and deposit & loan facilities	0.6	1.1	3.8	3.7

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
	Year to December 2009			Year to December 2010
	November 2008	February 2009	May 2009	February 2009	May 2009
(a) RBA survey (b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists^(a)	2.6	2.5	2.1	2.4	2.4
Union officials^(b)	4.1	3	2.1	3	2.7

Table 16: Output and Inflation Forecasts^(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
	Dec 2008	June 2009	Dec 2009	June 2010	Dec 2010	June 2011	Dec 2011
(a) Actual data to December 2008. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.75, TWI at 61, cash rate at 3.00 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$65 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$67 per barrel. Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP	0.3	−1¼	−1	½	2	3¼	3¾
Non-farm GDP	0.0	−1½	−1	½	2	3¼	3¾
CPI	3.7	1½	2¼	2½	2	1½	1½
Underlying inflation	4.3	3¾	3¼	2½	2	1½	1½

Table B1: Australian Resource Export Volumes
Per cent change, seasonally adjusted
	Share of resource export values (2008)	Six months to March on previous six months
Sources: ABS; RBA
Iron ore	20	−12
Coking coal	21	−23
Thermal coal	10	12
LNG	6	22
Oil	7	15
Gold	10	6