Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2009 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1: Discretionary Fiscal Easing in Selected Countries
  • Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
  • Table 3: Emerging Market Monetary Policy Changes
  • Table 4: Disbursement of Funds under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)
  • Table 5: Government-guaranteed Bank Bonds by Domicile of Issuer
  • Table 6: Changes in Global Share Prices
  • Table 7: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
  • Table 8: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
  • Table 9: National House Prices
  • Table 10: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 11: Credit Aggregates
  • Table 12: Measures of Consumer Prices
  • Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table A1: Volatility in Global Financial Markets
Table 1: Discretionary Fiscal Easing in Selected Countries
Per cent of GDP
Estimated easing in 2009(a)
United States over 2
United Kingdom over 1
Germany
Japan
China over 2
South Korea over 2
Taiwan over 2
(a) Based on policy announcements and media reports
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Current level Change since start
of easing cycle
Expectations for
next 6 months
Per cent Basis points
United States 0.125 ↓ 513 No change
Euro area 2.00 ↓ 225 ↓ 50 bps
Japan 0.10 ↓ 40 No change
United Kingdom 1.50 ↓ 425 ↓ 50 bps
Canada 1.00 ↓ 350 ↓ 50 bps
Sweden 2.00 ↓ 275 ↓ 100 bps
Switzerland 0.50 ↓ 225 No change
Norway 2.50 ↓ 325 na
New Zealand 3.50 ↓ 475 ↓ 100 bps
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Table 3: Emerging Market Monetary Policy Changes
Change since
previous Statement
Current level
Basis points Per cent
Brazil ↓ 100 12.75
Chile ↓ 100 7.25
China ↓ 135 5.31
Czech Republic ↓ 125 2.25
Hungary ↓ 200 9.50
India ↓ 200 5.50
Indonesia ↓ 125 8.25
Israel ↓ 250 1.00
Malaysia ↓ 100 2.50
Mexico ↓ 50 7.75
Philippines ↓ 100 5.00
Poland ↓ 175 4.25
Russia ↑ 200 13.00
South Africa ↓ 50 11.50
South Korea ↓ 175 2.50
Taiwan ↓ 150 1.50
Thailand ↓ 175 2.00
Turkey ↓ 375 13.00
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Table 4: Disbursement of Funds under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)
US$ billion
(a) Capital Purchase Program 250
– bank recapitalisation 195  
– remainder to be disbursed 55  
(b) Other programs 450
– Systemically Significant Failing Institutions
– American International Group
40  
– Targeted Investment Program
– Citigroup and Bank of America
40  
– Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility
– credit protection to Fed special purpose vehicle
20  
– Automotive Industry Financing Program
– General Motors; GMAC; Chrysler; Chrysler Financial
25  
– Asset Guarantee Program
– Citigroup
5  
– remainder to be disbursed 320  
Total TARP 700
Source: US Department of the Treasury
Table 5: Government-guaranteed Bank Bonds by Domicile of Issuer
Issuance
US$ billion
United States 134.5
France 38.1
Australia 38.0
United Kingdom 33.2
Germany 12.9
Sweden 9.6
Netherlands 9.5
Ireland 7.5
Austria 7.1
Norway 3.9
Portugal 3.5
Switzerland 2.6
Spain 2.6
Finland 1.6
Total 304.6
Sources: Thomson Reuters; RBA
Table 6: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
Since recent
peak
Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones −44 −13
– S&P 500 −47 −13
– NASDAQ −47 −10
Euro area
– STOXX −52 −15
United Kingdom
– FTSE −37 −7
Japan
– Nikkei −56 −16
Canada
– TSE 300 −42 −12
Australia
– ASX 200 −50 −21
MSCI Emerging Asia −54 −5
MSCI Latin America −44 2
MSCI Emerging Europe −70 −29
MSCI World −48 −13
MSCI World Financials −67 −29
Source: Bloomberg
Table 7: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Past 12 months Since previous Statement
New Zealand 54 16
South Korea 46 2
Australia 40 4
United Kingdom 36 8
Mexico 33 11
Brazil 32 5
South Africa 31 −2
Sweden 29 5
Indonesia 26 6
India 23 2
Canada 22 3
Philippines 17 −3
Euro area 14 −1
Malaysia 12 2
Thailand 6 0
Singapore 6 0
Switzerland 5 −2
Taiwan 5 2
China −5 0
Japan −16 −9
Majors TWI 13 1
Broad TWI 13 2
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Thomson Reuters
Table 8: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Past 12 months Since last Statement Deviation from
post-float average
New Zealand 11 12 3
South Korea 4 −1 32
United Kingdom −3 5 0
South Africa −4 −2 49
Indonesia −10 2 112
Canada −12 0 −15
India −12 −2 21
Euro area −18 −4 −25
Malaysia −20 −2 6
Singapore −24 −3 −22
Switzerland −25 −5 −31
Thailand −25 −5 −4
United States −29 −4 −11
China −33 −4 −5
Japan −41 −12 −39
TWI −24 −4 −10
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 9: National House Prices
Percentage change
September
quarter 2008
December
quarter 2008
Year to December
quarter 2008
ABS −2.4 −0.8 −3.3
RP Data-Rismark −1.4 −0.7 −2.3
APM −1.5 0.1 −2.1
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 10: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Level at
end Jan 2009
Change since:
End Oct
2008
End Aug
2008
End Jul
2007
Cash rate 4.25 −1.75 −3.00 −2.00
Housing loans
Prime-full doc
Banks 6.17 −1.54 −2.76 −1.27
Credit unions and building societies 6.20 −1.69 −2.63 −1.17
Mortgage originators 6.38 −1.69 −2.72 −0.97
Prime low-doc
Banks 6.75 −1.45 −2.64 −0.94
Mortgage originators 7.22 −1.33 −2.61 −0.58
Non-conforming 10.23 −1.51 −1.51 0.60
Personal loans
Margin loans 8.92 −1.10 −1.65 −0.04
Standard credit cards 18.67 −1.08 −1.25 0.88
Low-rate credit cards 12.67 −0.56 −0.27 1.50
Unsecured term loans 14.10 −0.74 −0.80 1.48
Home equity loans 6.93 −1.30 −2.65 −1.29
Small business
Term loans
Residentially secured 8.28 −1.13 −1.81 −0.02
Other security 9.01 −1.00 −1.68 0.12
Overdraft
Residentially secured 9.10 −1.13 −1.81 0.05
Other security 9.93 −1.00 −1.66 0.21
Average actual rate(a) 8.37 −1.13 −1.80 −0.26
Large business
Average actual variable rate(a) 6.44 −1.84 −2.53 −1.12
Average actual bill rate(a) 5.10 −2.55 −3.28 −1.99

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA

Table 11: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
March
quarter 2008
June
quarter 2008
September
quarter 2008
December
quarter 2008
Total credit 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.2
Household 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2
– Owner-occupier housing 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6
– Investor housing 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
– Personal 0.0 0.0 −0.4 −1.4
Business 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.2
Source: RBA
Table 12: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
Quarterly Year-ended
September
quarter
2008
December
quarter
2008
September
quarter
2008
December
quarter
2008
CPI 1.2 −0.3 5.0 3.7
– Tradables 0.7 −1.8 3.4 1.2
– Tradables (ex food and fuel) 0.1 −0.2 1.1 0.9
– Non-tradables 1.6 0.6 6.1 5.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median 1.3 0.9 4.8 4.5
Trimmed mean 1.2 0.6 4.6 4.2
CPI ex volatile items(a) 1.1 0.5 4.6 4.1

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2009 Year to June 2010
August
2008
November
2008
February
2009
November
2008
February
2009
Market economists(a) 3.3 3.4 2.0   2.6 2.5
Union officials(b) 4.0 4.5 3.2   4.0 3.0
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
Sep
2008
Dec
2008
June
2009
Dec
2009
June
2010
Dec
2010
June
2011
GDP 1.9 1.0 ¼ ½
Non-farm GDP 1.7 1.0 0 ¼
CPI 5.0 3.7 2
Underlying inflation 4.7 4.3 3 2

(a) Actual GDP data to September 2008 and actual inflation data to December 2008. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.65, TWI at 54, cash rate at 3.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$55 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$57 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table A1: Volatility in Global Financial Markets
Annualised standard deviation of daily returns
Episodes Period Equities Currencies Government bonds
Non-crisis periods 1980:Q1 – current 10 6 5
Sub-prime crisis – peak 2008:Q4 72 21 11
Sub-prime crisis – average 2007:Q3 – current 23 9 5
Enron scandal 2002:Q3 28 8 6
September 11 2001:Q3 15 6 4
Dot-com crash 2000:Q2 19 6 4
Russian debt default and LTCM 1998:Q3 – 1999:Q1 18 7 6
Asian financial crisis 1997:Q3 – 1997:Q4 16 5 4
1987 stock market crash 1987:Q4 32 8 10
Sources: Bank of England; BIS; Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Global Financial Data; IMF; RBA; World Federation of Exchanges