Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2009 List of tables

  • Table 1: World GDP Growth
  • Table 2: Policy Rates
  • Table 3: Emerging Market Policy Rates
  • Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices
  • Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
  • Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
  • Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 8: National Dwelling Price Growth
  • Table 9: Fiscal Balance –General Government Sector
  • Table 10: Credit Aggregates
  • Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2007 2008 2009 2010
IMF forecasts(d)
United States 2.1 0.4 −2.6 0.8
Euro area 2.7 0.8 −4.8 −0.3
Japan 2.3 −0.7 −6.0 1.7
China 13 9.0 7.5 8.5
Other east Asia(b) 5.8 2.7 −3.2 2.4
India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.5
World 5.2 3.1 −1.4 2.5
Australia's trading partners(c) 5.6 2.7 −1.7 3.0

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
(d) Forecasts from the July World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update where available; otherwise from the April WEO

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 2: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most recent
change
Change since
start of
easing phase
Basis points
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 ↓ 325
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 40
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 575
Norway 1.25 ↓ Jun 09 ↓ 450
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 09 ↓ 450
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 250
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 525
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 513
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Table 3: Emerging Market Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Change since
previous Statement
Basis points
Change since
start of easing
phase
Basis points
Brazil 8.75 ↓ 150 ↓ 500
Chile 0.50 ↓ 125 ↓ 775
China 5.31 0 ↓ 216
India 4.75 0 ↓ 425
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ 75 ↓ 300
Malaysia 2.00 0 ↓ 150
Mexico 4.50 ↓ 150 ↓ 375
Poland 3.50 ↓ 25 ↓ 250
Russia 11.00 ↓ 150 ↓ 200
South Africa 7.50 ↓ 100 ↓ 450
South Korea 2.00 0 ↓ 325
Thailand 1.25 0 ↓ 250
Turkey 8.25 ↓ 150 ↓ 850
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
Peak to trough Since recent trough
United States
– Dow Jones −54 42
– S&P 500 −57 48
– NASDAQ −56 57
Euro area
– STOXX −62 45
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 32
Japan
– Nikkei −61 45
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 46
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 36
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 79
– Latin America −57 71
– Emerging Europe −71 70
– World −56 46
Source: Bloomberg
Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Past
year
Since recent peak
(March 2009)
Mexico 32 −16
South Korea 20 −21
Sweden 17 −22
Brazil 15 −24
United Kingdom 15 −19
India 13 −8
Indonesia 9 −18
Australia 9 −25
Philippines 9 −1
New Zealand 8 −27
Euro area 7 −12
South Africa 7 −26
Malaysia 7 −6
Taiwan 6 −6
Singapore 4 −7
Canada 3 −18
Thailand 1 −6
Switzerland 1 −8
China 0 0
Japan −12 −4
Majors TWI 3 −14
Broad TWI 7 −10
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Since recent peak
(July 2008)
Since recent trough
(March 2009)
Deviation from
post-float average
South Korea 4 3 52
United Kingdom 1 11 12
New Zealand −2 −2 2
India −4 22 52
Euro area −5 16 −12
Malaysia −7 25 33
Indonesia −7 9 129
Canada −8 12 −4
Singapore −8 23 −3
South Africa −10 3 52
Switzerland −10 20 −17
Thailand −12 25 22
China −14 33 24
United States −14 33 17
Japan −23 29 −15
TWI −11 22 12
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
December
quarter 2008
March
quarter 2009
Year to March
quarter 2009
Domestic final demand 0.0 −1.0 0.5
GNE −1.3 −1.0 −1.4
Net exports(a) 1.7 2.2 3.2
Statistical discrepancy(a) −0.9 −0.7 −1.4
GDP −0.6 0.4 0.4
Non-farm GDP −0.8 0.5 0.0
GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade −1.3 −1.4 1.7

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 8: National Dwelling Price Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2009
June
quarter 2009
Year to June
quarter 2009
House prices
ABS −1.5 4.2 −1.4
APM 0.1 3.4 0.1
RP Data-Rismark 0.5 2.3 0.8
Apartment prices
APM 0.1 2.1 1.9
RP Data-Rismark 2.0 2.1 3.6
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 9: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector(a)
Budget estimates
$billion Per cent of GDP
2008/09 2009/10 2008/09 2009/10
General government
Australian government −32.9 −53.1 −2.7 −4.5
State governments −12.3 −21.9 −1.1 −1.9
Total (Australian and state) −45.2 −75.0 −3.9 −6.4
State public trading enterprises
Capital spending 25.9 29.9 2.2 2.6

(a) ABS Government Finance Statistics basis

Sources: Australian Treasury; RBA; state Treasuries

Table 10: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, Per cent
September
quarter
2008
December
quarter
2008
March
quarter
2009
June
quarter
2009
Total credit 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.0
Household 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
– Owner-occupier housing 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
– Investor housing 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2
– Personal −0.5 −1.0 −0.5 −0.4
Business 0.9 0.0 −0.0 −0.6
Source: RBA
Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Current level Change since
5 August
2009
End
April 2009
End
August 2008
Cash rate 3.00 0.00 −4.25
Housing loans
Prime-full-doc 5.17 0.02 −3.81
Prime low-doc 5.84 −0.07 −3.65
Non-conforming 9.35 −0.05 −2.56
Personal loans 10.92 0.03 −2.08
Small business loans
Term residentially secured 7.11 0.03 −2.99
Overdraft residentially secured 7.92 0.03 −2.99
Average actual rate(a) 7.16 0.04 −3.00
Large business loans
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 5.21 0.16 −3.41

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA

Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
March quarter 2009 June quarter 2009 March quarter 2009 June quarter 2009
CPI 0.1 0.5 2.5 1.5
– Tradables 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) 0.9 1.0 2.0 1.9
– Non-tradables −0.1 0.4 3.4 2.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median 1.2 0.8 4.4 4.2
Trimmed mean 1.0 0.8 3.9 3.6
CPI ex volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 1.1 0.8 3.7 3.6

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2009 Year to December 2010
February
2009
May
2009
August
2009
May
2009
August
2009
Market economists(a) 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.4
Union officials(b) 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.5
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
Mar
2009
June
2009
Dec
2009
June
2010
Dec
2010
June
2011
Dec
2011
GDP growth 0.4 ¼ ½ 1
Non-farm GDP growth 0 0 ¾ ¾
CPI inflation 2.5 1.5 2 2 2
Underlying inflation 4 2 2 2

(a) Actual GDP data to March 2009 and actual inflation data to June 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.84, TWI at 66, and WTI crude oil price at US$80 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$83 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA