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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2009

List of tables

Table 1: World GDP Growth

Table 2: Policy Rates

Table 3: Emerging Market Policy Rates

Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 7: Demand and Output Growth

Table 8: National Dwelling Price Growth

Table 9: Fiscal Balance –General Government Sector

Table 10: Credit Aggregates

Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts

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Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
  2007 2008 2009 2010
IMF forecasts(d)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
(d) Forecasts from the July World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update where available; otherwise from the April WEO
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 2.1 0.4 −2.6 0.8
Euro area 2.7 0.8 −4.8 −0.3
Japan 2.3 −0.7 −6.0 1.7
China 13 9.0 7.5 8.5
Other east Asia(b) 5.8 2.7 −3.2 2.4
India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.5
World 5.2 3.1 −1.4 2.5
Australia’s trading partners(c) 5.6 2.7 −1.7 3.0
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Table 2: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		Most recent
change 		Change since
start of
easing phase
Basis points
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 425
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 ↓ 325
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 40
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09 ↓ 575
Norway 1.25 ↓ Jun 09 ↓ 450
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 09 ↓ 450
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 250
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 ↓ 525
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 ↓ 513
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Table 3: Emerging Market Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		Change since
previous Statement
Basis points 		Change since
start of easing
phase
Basis points
Sources: Bloomberg; central banks
Brazil 8.75 ↓ 150 ↓ 500
Chile 0.50 ↓ 125 ↓ 775
China 5.31 0 ↓ 216
India 4.75 0 ↓ 425
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ 75 ↓ 300
Malaysia 2.00 0 ↓ 150
Mexico 4.50 ↓ 150 ↓ 375
Poland 3.50 ↓ 25 ↓ 250
Russia 11.00 ↓ 150 ↓ 200
South Africa 7.50 ↓ 100 ↓ 450
South Korea 2.00 0 ↓ 325
Thailand 1.25 0 ↓ 250
Turkey 8.25 ↓ 150 ↓ 850
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Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
  Peak to trough Since recent trough
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones −54 42
– S&P 500 −57 48
– NASDAQ −56 57
Euro area
– STOXX −62 45
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 32
Japan
– Nikkei −61 45
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 46
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 36
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 79
– Latin America −57 71
– Emerging Europe −71 70
– World −56 46
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Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
  Past
year 		Since recent peak
(March 2009)
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Mexico 32 −16
South Korea 20 −21
Sweden 17 −22
Brazil 15 −24
United Kingdom 15 −19
India 13 −8
Indonesia 9 −18
Australia 9 −25
Philippines 9 −1
New Zealand 8 −27
Euro area 7 −12
South Africa 7 −26
Malaysia 7 −6
Taiwan 6 −6
Singapore 4 −7
Canada 3 −18
Thailand 1 −6
Switzerland 1 −8
China 0 0
Japan −12 −4
Majors TWI 3 −14
Broad TWI 7 −10
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Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  Since recent peak
(July 2008) 		Since recent trough
(March 2009) 		Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
South Korea 4 3 52
United Kingdom 1 11 12
New Zealand −2 −2 2
India −4 22 52
Euro area −5 16 −12
Malaysia −7 25 33
Indonesia −7 9 129
Canada −8 12 −4
Singapore −8 23 −3
South Africa −10 3 52
Switzerland −10 20 −17
Thailand −12 25 22
China −14 33 24
United States −14 33 17
Japan −23 29 −15
TWI −11 22 12
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Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  December
quarter 2008 		March
quarter 2009 		Year to March
quarter 2009
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Sources: ABS; RBA
Domestic final demand 0.0 −1.0 0.5
GNE −1.3 −1.0 −1.4
Net exports(a) 1.7 2.2 3.2
Statistical discrepancy(a) −0.9 −0.7 −1.4
GDP −0.6 0.4 0.4
Non-farm GDP −0.8 0.5 0.0
GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade −1.3 −1.4 1.7
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Table 8: National Dwelling Price Growth
Per cent
  March
quarter 2009 		June
quarter 2009 		Year to June
quarter 2009
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
House prices
ABS −1.5 4.2 −1.4
APM 0.1 3.4 0.1
RP Data-Rismark 0.5 2.3 0.8
Apartment prices
APM 0.1 2.1 1.9
RP Data-Rismark 2.0 2.1 3.6
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Table 9: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector(a)
Budget estimates
  $billion Per cent of GDP
2008/09 2009/10 2008/09 2009/10
(a) ABS Government Finance Statistics basis
Sources: Australian Treasury; RBA; state Treasuries
General government
Australian government −32.9 −53.1 −2.7 −4.5
State governments −12.3 −21.9 −1.1 −1.9
Total (Australian and state) −45.2 −75.0 −3.9 −6.4
State public trading enterprises
Capital spending 25.9 29.9 2.2 2.6
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Table 10: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, Per cent
  September
quarter
2008 		December
quarter
2008 		March
quarter
2009 		June
quarter
2009
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.0
Household 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
– Owner-occupier housing 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
– Investor housing 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2
– Personal −0.5 −1.0 −0.5 −0.4
Business 0.9 0.0 −0.0 −0.6
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Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
  Current level Change since
5 August
2009 		End
April 2009 		End
August 2008
(a) RBA estimate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 3.00 0.00 −4.25
Housing loans
Prime-full-doc 5.17 0.02 −3.81
Prime low-doc 5.84 −0.07 −3.65
Non-conforming 9.35 −0.05 −2.56
Personal loans 10.92 0.03 −2.08
Small business loans
Term residentially secured 7.11 0.03 −2.99
Overdraft residentially secured 7.92 0.03 −2.99
Average actual rate(a) 7.16 0.04 −3.00
Large business loans
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 5.21 0.16 −3.41
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Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly Year-ended
March quarter 2009 June quarter 2009 March quarter 2009 June quarter 2009
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.1 0.5 2.5 1.5
– Tradables 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) 0.9 1.0 2.0 1.9
– Non-tradables −0.1 0.4 3.4 2.4
Underlying measures
Weighted median 1.2 0.8 4.4 4.2
Trimmed mean 1.0 0.8 3.9 3.6
CPI ex volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 1.1 0.8 3.7 3.6
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Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to December 2009 Year to December 2010
February
2009 		May
2009 		August
2009 		May
2009 		August
2009
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.4
Union officials(b) 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.5
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Table 14: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  Mar
2009 		June
2009 		Dec
2009 		June
2010 		Dec
2010 		June
2011 		Dec
2011
(a) Actual GDP data to March 2009 and actual inflation data to June 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.84, TWI at 66, and WTI crude oil price at US$80 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$83 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 0.4 ¼ ½ 1 2¼ 3¼ 3¾
Non-farm GDP growth 0 0 ¾ ¾ 2¼ 3¼ 3¾
CPI inflation 2.5 1.5 2¼ 2¾ 2 2 2
Underlying inflation 4 3¾ 3¼ 2½ 2 2 2
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