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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2007

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP

Table 2: Commodity Prices

Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices

Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 5: Change in Renminbi against Other Currencies

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 7: Demand and Output

Table 8: House Prices

Table 9: Volume of Farm Production

Table 10: Labour Market by State

Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Mortgage Rates

Table 12: Banks’ Business Lending Rates

Table 13: Financial Aggregates

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table A1: Urban Fixed-asset Investment Expenditure in China

Table A2: China’s Production and Imports

Table D1: Banks’ Sources and Uses of Funds

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Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
  2006 2007 2008
  IMF forecasts
(October 2007)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial
United States 2.9 1.9 1.9
Euro area 2.9 2.5 2.1
Japan 2.2 2.0 1.7
China 11.1 11.5 10.0
Other east Asia(b) 5.4 5.2 4.9
India 9.6 8.9 8.4
World 5.4 5.2 4.8
Australia’s trading partners(c) 5.2 5.1 4.5
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Table 2: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
  Three months to
October 2007		 Year to
October 2007
( a) Latest available data are for September.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index.
Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA
RBA index 3 6
Rural 17 27
– Wheat 36 51
– Beef & veal 3 −3
– Wool 6 44
Base metals −7 −4
– Aluminium −12 −13
– Copper −1 1
– Nickel −8 −9
– Zinc −18 −26
– Lead 19 131
Other resources 3 3
– Coking coal(a) −1 −12
– Steaming coal(a) 4 9
– Iron ore(a) −5 3
– Gold 12 22
Memo item
Oil in US$(b)    
– WTI 16 46
– Tapis 12 39
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Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Per cent
  Since 2000 peak Past year Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 13 9 −3
– S&P 500 −3 7 −1
– NASDAQ −46 16 5
Euro area
– STOXX −10 9 0
United Kingdom
– FTSE −8 2 0
Japan
– TOPIX −11 −4 −7
Canada
– TSE 300 24 15 3
Australia
– ASX 200 92 22 10
MSCI Emerging Asia 82 56 19
MSCI Latin America 273 45 12
MSCI World 6 12 3
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Reuters
Brazil −19 −8
Canada −18 −11
Australia −17 −9
New Zealand −14 −1
Euro area −13 −6
Philippines −13 −4
Sweden −12 −6
India −12 −3
South Africa −11 −7
United Kingdom −9 −3
Malaysia −9 −3
Switzerland −9 −5
Singapore −8 −5
Thailand −7 0
China −5 −2
Japan −4 −6
South Korea −3 −2
Taiwan −1 −2
Mexico −1 −1
Indonesia 0 −1
Majors TWI −13 −8
Broad TWI −9 −5
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Table 5: Change in Renminbi against Other Currencies
Per cent
  Since end
2000		 Since
revaluation(a)		 Past
year
(a) 21 July 2005
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Reuters
United States 11 9 6
Japan 10 11 1
Euro area −28 −9 −8
Taiwan 9 12 4
Korea −20 −3 2
Hong Kong 11 9 5
Malaysia −3 −5 −3
United Kingdom −21 −9 −4
Singapore −8 −5 −2
Canada −31 −17 −13
Russia −3 −7 −3
Thailand 9 12 4
Australia −34 −12 −13
Mexico 24 10 5
India −6 −1 −7
TWI −5 3 0
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Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  Past year Since
previous
Statement		 Deviation
from
post-float
average
Sources: RBA; Reuters
Indonesia 20 5 156
US 20 7 30
Taiwan 18 6 35
South Korea 16 5 27
Japan 15 1 10
China 13 6 51
PNG 13 3 105
Singapore 11 2 7
Switzerland 9 2 −3
UK 9 4 0
South Africa 6 −1 47
Sweden 6 1 11
Euro area 5 1 −5
Philippines 4 3 32
New Zealand 4 6 −3
Canada −1 −5 −8
TWI 12 4 23
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Table 7: Demand and Output
Percentage change
  March quarter
2007		 June quarter
2007		 Year to June
quarter 2007
(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy
Sources: ABS; RBA
Domestic final demand 1.8 1.8 5.6
Change in inventories(a) 0.6 −0.4 0.9
GNE(b) 1.9 1.0 5.8
Net exports(a) −0.4 −0.1 −1.7
GDP 1.6 0.9 4.3
Non-farm GDP 1.8 1.2 5.2
Farm GDP −6.8 −10.9 −26.3
Memo item:
Real GDP adjusted for changes in the terms of trade 1.9 0.9 5.6
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Table 8: House Prices
Percentage change
  June
quarter		 September
quarter		 Year to
September
quarter
Source: ABS
Sydney 3.4 1.5 5.2
Melbourne 5.9 6.7 17.8
Brisbane 6.3 4.0 18.1
Adelaide 5.7 5.1 16.2
Perth −2.2 1.1 2.8
Canberra 3.7 3.9 11.2
Hobart 2.8 3.9 11.6
Darwin −0.4 5.1 13.1
Australia 3.7 3.5 10.6
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Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
  Share of gross production Growth
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08(f)
(a) Gross farm production less farm inputs
Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA
Crops 45 −31 7
– Cereals 17 −61 33
– Non-cereal crops 29 −13 0
Livestock products 43 −5 0
Farm GDP(a)   −25 5
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Table 10: Labour Market by State
Trend measure, Per cent
  Employment growth Unemployment rate
Year to October 2007 October 2006 October 2007
Source: ABS
NSW 1.7 5.0 4.6
Victoria 2.7 4.8 4.3
Queensland 3.1 4.2 3.8
WA 4.2 3.4 3.5
SA 1.2 5.0 5.0
Tasmania 2.3 6.1 5.3
Australia 2.5 4.6 4.3
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Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Mortgage Rates
As at 31 October 2007
  Per cent of
outstanding loans		 Change
Basis points		 Level
Per cent
Aug Sep Oct
Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA
Cash rate   25 0 0 6.50
Prime full-doc 91        
Banks 78 25 0 0 7.65
Credit unions and
building societies		 5 25 0 0 7.43
Mortgage originators 8 25 5 6 7.83
Prime low-doc 8        
Banks 5 25 8 2 8.04
Mortgage originators 3 25 13 5 8.19
Non-conforming 1 40 62 0 9.90
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Table 12: Banks’ Business Lending Rates(a)
As at 31 October 2007
  Share
Per cent		 Change
Basis points		 Level
Per cent
Aug Sep Oct Oct
(a) Interest rates are RBA estimates.
(b) Large loans are those greater than $2 million; small loans are those less than $2 million.
Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA
Cash rate   25 0 0 6.50
Large loans(b) 65 14 11 10 7.28
– bills 29 13 16 15 7.42
– variable-rate 27 19 8 7 7.27
– fixed-rate 9 1 1 2 6.82
Small loans(b) 35 17 3 6 8.34
– bills 7 13 16 15 7.69
– variable-rate 18 25 0 0 8.85
– fixed-rate 9 3 4 5 7.88
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Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, Per cent
  December
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007		 September
quarter 2007
Source: RBA
Total credit 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2
Household 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7
– Owner-occupier housing 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8
– Investor housing 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7
– Personal 0.7 0.9 2.2 −0.1
Business 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.1
Broad money 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3
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Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
  Quarterly Year-ended
June
quarter
2007		 September
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007		 September
quarter
2007
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 1.2 0.7 2.1 1.9
– Tradables 2.0 0.2 0.3 −0.3
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.6
– Non-tradables 0.7 1.1 3.4 3.5
Underlying measures
Weighted median 0.9 1.0 2.9 3.1
Trimmed mean 0.9 0.9 2.7 2.9
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.7 0.7 2.6 2.6
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Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to June 2008 Year to June 2009
May
2007		 August
2007		 November
2007		 August
2007		 November
2007
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
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Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
  Dec
2006		 June
2007		 Dec
2007		 June
2008		 Dec
2008		 June
2009		 Dec
2009
(a) Actual data to September 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 73, cash rate at 6.75 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$90 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$92 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
Consumer price index 3.3 2.1 2¾ 3¼ 3 2¾–3 2¾–3
Underlying inflation 3.0 2.8 3¼ 3¼ 3 2¾–3 2¾–3
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Boxes

Table A1: Urban Fixed-asset Investment Expenditure in China
Per cent of GDP
  2004 2006
(a) Includes land sales
Source: CEIC
Total(a) 37 42
Of which:    
Primary industry 1 1
 Secondary industry 14 18
– Manufacturing 9 12
– Utilities 3 4
– Other 2 2
Tertiary industry  22 24
– Real estate 9 10
– Infrastructure 4 5
– Water & environmental management 3 3
– Other 6 6
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Table A2: China’s Production and Imports
Per cent
  Share of world   Annual growth  
2001 2006 2006
(a) Data for 2005
Sources: ABARE; AME Mineral Economics; International Aluminium Institute; International Iron and Steel Institute;
Customs General Administration; CEIC; Energy Information Administration; RBA
Production
Steel 17 35   20  
Electricity 12 17(a)   13(a)  
Aluminium 14 28   20  
Imports
Coal 1 4   46  
Copper 12 12   −32  
Iron ore 18 41   19  
Nickel 5 22   8  
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Table D1: Banks’ Sources and Uses of Funds(a)
  Level in July 2007 Change over August and September 2007
$ billion $ billion Per cent
(a) Excludes securitisation
Sources: APRA; RBA
Sources of funds 1,804 143 7.9
Domestic deposits 759 29 3.8
Domestic capital markets 401 73 18.3
– Certificates of deposit 216 66 30.6
– Other 185 8 4.1
Offshore capital markets 486 13 2.7
Other liabilities 158 27 17
Uses of funds 1,918 145 7.6
Domestic loans 1,221 40 3.3
Domestic debt securities and
other financial assets		 354 69 19.5
– Certificates of deposit 71 49 69.8
– Other 283 20 7
Offshore assets 149 17 11.1
Other assets 194 19 9.8
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