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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2007

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: Commodity Prices

Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy

Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 6: Demand and Output

Table 7: Housing Prices

Table 8: Recent Trends in Resource Export Volumes

Table 9: Financial Aggregates

Table 10: Non-government Net Bond Issuance by Sector

Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices

Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 13: RBA Inflation Forecasts

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Box

Table B1: Labour Force Status

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Table 1: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
  Three months to
April 2007
 Year to
April 2007
(a) Latest available data are for February.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index.
Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA
RBA index 4.5 8.4
Rural −2.5 3.3
– Wheat 1.2 6.1
– Beef & veal −6.2 0.2
– Wool 4.3 38.3
– Sugar −10.4 −43.1
Base metals 16.4 39.8
– Aluminium −1.0 2.6
– Copper 32.9 15.3
– Nickel 34.5 165.9
– Zinc −8.1 10.6
Other resources 1.8 −1.4
– Coking coal(a) −1.9 −18.6
– Steaming coal(a) 4.1 −1.4
– Iron ore(a) 1.7 14.9
– Gold 6.0 6.0
Memo item    
Oil in US$(b) 16.7 −8.0
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Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
  Current level
Per cent		   Most recent
change		   Expectations for
next 6 months
Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters
United States 5.25 ↑ Jun 06   No change
Euro area 3.75 ↑ Mar 07 ↑ 50 bps
Japan 0.50 ↑ Feb 07 ↑ 25 bps
United Kingdom 5.25 ↑ Jan 07 ↑ 50 bps
Canada 4.25 ↑ May 06   No change
New Zealand 7.75 ↑ Apr 07   No change
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Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
  Since 2000
peak		 2007 to
date		 Since
previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 12 5 4
– S&P 500 −3 5 3
– NASDAQ −50 5 2
Euro area
– STOXX −9 8 4
United Kingdom
– FTSE −7 3 1
Japan
– TOPIX -4 1 −2
Canada
– TSE 300 18 4 2
Australia
– ASX 200 82 8 4
MSCI Emerging Asia 31 4 2
MSCI Latin America 204 8 4
MSCI World 3 5 2
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
  2006 Since previous
Statement
Source: RBA
Sweden −14 −4
Thailand −12 −3
United Kingdom −12 −2
Euro area −10 −4
Brazil −9 −3
Indonesia −9 0
Philippines −8 −2
Singapore −8 −1
South Korea −8 0
Malaysia −7 −2
Australia −7 −6
Switzerland −7 −2
China −3 −1
New Zealand −3 −8
India −2 −7
Taiwan −1 1
Canada 0 −6
Japan 1 −1
Mexico 2 0
South Africa 11 −2
Majors TWI −5 −4
Broad TWI −4 −3
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Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  2006 2007 to
date		 Since
previous
Statement
Source: RBA
South Africa 19 5 3
Japan 9 5 5
US 8 5 6
Canada 8 0 −1
Taiwan 7 7 7
PNG 6 6 7
New Zealand 5 0 −1
China 4 3 5
Switzerland 1 4 3
Philippines 0 1 4
South Korea 0 5 5
Singapore −1 4 5
Indonesia −1 5 6
Euro area −3 1 1
UK −5 3 4
Sweden −7 2 2
TWI 4 4 4
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Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
  September
qtr 2006
 December
qtr 2006		 Year to December
qtr 2006
(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy
Sources: ABS, RBA
Domestic final demand 0.3 1.3 3.7
Change in inventories(a) 0.0 0.7 −0.2
GNE(b) 0.1 2.2 4.0
Net exports(a) 0.2 −1.3 −1.4
GDP 0.3 1.0 2.8
Non-farm GDP 0.7 1.4 3.5
Farm GDP −11.5 −11.2 −22.8
Memo item:      
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade		 0.8 1.4 4.2
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Table 7: Housing Prices(a)
Percentage change
  APM
(Mix-adjusted index)		 Residex
(Repeat-sales index)		 RP Data/Rismark
(Hedonic index)
Mar qtr
2007		 Year to
Mar qtr		 Mar qtr
2007		 Year to
Mar qtr		 Mar qtr
2007		 Year to
Mar qtr
(a) Houses and units except for APM data for Canberra, Hobart and Darwin which are houses only
Sources: APM; RBA; Residex; RP Data/Rismark
Sydney −1 −1 2 2 1 1
Melbourne 2 4 5 7 1 5
Brisbane 1 7 2 8 2 9
Adelaide 2 8 2 5 3 7
Perth −1 21 −1 13 −1 23
Canberra 0 5 1 7 0 6
Hobart 0 4 −1 3 .. ..
Darwin −1 16 2 −1 −2 11
Australia 0 5 2 7 1 5
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Table 8: Recent Trends in Resource Export Volumes
Average annual growth, per cent
  2000 to
2004		 2005 to
2006
Sources: ABS; RBA
Total resources 1.3 4.4
– Metal ores & minerals 6.0 5.0
– Coal, coke & briquettes 5.8 1.7
– Other mineral fuels −0.9 10.5
– Gold −6.7 2.9
– Metals −4.2 1.7
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Table 9: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, percentage change
  June
quarter
2006		 September
quarter
2006		 December
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2007
Source: RBA
Total credit 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3
Household 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0
– Owner-occupier housing 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1
– Investor housing 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.9
– Personal 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.0
Business 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6
Broad money 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2
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Table 10: Non-government Net Bond Issuance by Sector
$ billion
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
March
quarter
Source: RBA
Bond issues by Australian entities
Onshore
Financial institutions 3.8 8.8 16.6 16.8 4.7
Non-financial corporates 2.8 4.4 3.9 6.9 1.3
Asset-backed 10.7 6.7 15.5 19.6 7.3
Total 17.3 19.8 36.0 43.3 13.3
Offshore
Financial institutions 26.2 36.5 26.1 33.2 4.6
Non-financial corporates 9.7 11.6 9.4 5.3 5.6
Asset-backed 8.8 14.6 6.4 8.6 1.0
Total 44.6 62.7 41.9 47.2 11.2
Total 61.9 82.5 78.0 90.5 24.5
A$ bond issues by non-resident entities
Onshore 2.6 18.0 22.9 26.9 10.8
Offshore 23.1 18.1 5.4 −2.4 −1.3
Total 25.7 36.1 28.2 24.5 9.5
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Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
  Quarterly Year-ended
December
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2007		 December
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2007
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI −0.1 0.1 3.3 2.4
– Tradables −1.4 −1.0 2.9 1.0
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) −0.1 0.0 0.8 0.4
Non-tradables 0.8 0.9 3.5 3.5
Underlying measures
Weighted median 0.5 0.5 3.0 2.7
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.5 2.9 2.7
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.5 0.6 2.7 2.5
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Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to December 2007 Year to December 2008
November
2006		 February
2007		 May
2007		 February
2007		 May
2007
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Union officials(b) 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0
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Table 13: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
  June
2006		 Dec
2006		 June
2007		 Dec
2007		 June
2008		 Dec
2008		 June
2009
(a) Actual data to March 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.83, TWI at 67, cash rate at 6.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$65 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
Consumer price index 4.0 3.3 1¾ 2¼ 2½–3 2½–3 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2.9 3.0 2½ 2½ 2½–3 2½–3 2½–3
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Box

Table B1: Labour Force Status
Per cent of civilian population aged 15 to 69
  September 1992 September 2001 September 2006
Source: ABS
Labour force 70.2 72.2 74.2
Employed 62.7 67.3 70.6
Unemployed 7.5 4.9 3.6
Not in the labour force 29.8 27.8 25.8
Marginally attached 6.9 6.0 5.1
– Discouraged job seekers 1.2 0.6 0.4
Not marginally attached 22.9 21.8 20.7
– Do not want to work 20.4 18.1 16.8
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