Table 6: Coefficients from Four-equation Model Estimated for 1962:Q1–2004:Q4

		Dependent variable
			Nominal federal funds rate
	Lags included	Inflation rate	1960:Q1–1979:Q2 ‘Burns’ AR(1) correction?			1979:Q2–1990:Q2 ‘Volcker’ AR(1) correction?			1990:Q3–2004:Q4 ‘Greenspan’ AR(1) correction?		Δ output gap	Unemployment gap
			No	Yes		No	Yes		No	Yes
Note: ** and * indicate that coefficient or sum of coefficients is significant at the 1 and 5 per cent levels, respectively. Source: author's calculations
Endogenous variables
Inflation	1–24	0.98**
Inflation minus
inflation target	0–1		0.45**	0.66**		1.46**	1.55**		1.43**	0.57*
Δ inflation rate	1–4										0.17
Federal funds rate error term	1			0.89**			0.70**			1.00**
Δ federal funds rate	2–10										−1.06**
Level of unemployment gap	0–4	−0.63**
Level of output gap	0–1		0.24**	0.49**		−0.03	0.11		0.95**	0.60**
Level of output gap	0–2											−0.52**
Exogenous variables
Relative price of imports	1–4	0.11**
Food-energy effect	0–4	0.65**
Medical care effect	1–4	1.12**
Productivity trend acceleration	0	−0.62*
Nixon controls ‘on’	0	−1.45**
Nixon controls ‘off’	0	2.19**
2		0.90	0.62	0.91		0.69	0.82		0.31	0.95	0.20	0.88
Standard error of estimate		0.76	1.50	0.74		1.70	1.37		1.56	0.39	0.75	0.50
Sum of squared residuals		82.3	165.9	39.85		126.7	71.2		130.9	7.9	87.2	41.7