Bulletin – March 2014
Equation (A1)
Δ
m
a
n
t
=
α
1
+
α
2
m
a
n
t
−
1
+
α
3
m
t
p
t
−
1
+
α
4
r
e
r
t
−
1
+
α
5
e
r
a
t
−
1
+
∑
i
=
0
2
β
i
Δ
m
t
p
t
−
i
+
∑
j
=
1
4
γ
j
Δ
r
e
r
t
−
j
+
∈
t
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