STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY – NOVEMBER 2007
List of tables
Table 1: World GDP
Table 2: Commodity Prices
Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Table 5: Change in Renminbi against Other Currencies
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 7: Demand and Output
Table 8: House Prices
Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
Table 10: Labour Market by State
Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Mortgage Rates
Table 12: Banks' Business Lending Rates
Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
Table A1: Urban Fixed-asset Investment Expenditure in China
Table A2: China's Production and Imports
Table D1: Banks' Sources and Uses of Funds
..................................................................................................................................  |
Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
IMF forecasts
(October 2007) |
|
| United States |
2.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
| Euro area |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
| Japan |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
| China |
11.1 |
11.5 |
10.0 |
| Other east Asia(b) |
5.4 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
| India |
9.6 |
8.9 |
8.4 |
| World |
5.4 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
| Australia’s trading partners(c) |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
|
| (a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified |
| (b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates |
| (c) Weighted using merchandise export shares |
| Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 2: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
|
Three months to
October 2007 |
Year to
October 2007 |
|
| RBA index |
3 |
6 |
| Rural |
17 |
27 |
| – Wheat |
36 |
51 |
| – Beef & veal |
3 |
–3 |
| – Wool |
6 |
44 |
| Base metals |
–7 |
–4 |
| – Aluminium |
–12 |
–13 |
| – Copper |
–1 |
1 |
| – Nickel |
–8 |
–9 |
| – Zinc |
–18 |
–26 |
| – Lead |
19 |
131 |
| Other resources |
3 |
3 |
| – Coking coal(a) |
–1 |
–12 |
| – Steaming coal(a) |
4 |
9 |
| – Iron ore(a) |
–5 |
3 |
| – Gold |
12 |
22 |
| Memo item |
|
|
| Oil in US$(b) |
|
|
| – WTI |
16 |
46 |
| – Tapis |
12 |
39 |
|
| (a) Latest available data are for September. |
| (b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index. |
| Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Per cent
|
Since 2000 peak |
Past year |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
| – Dow Jones |
13 |
9 |
–3 |
| – S&P 500 |
–3 |
7 |
–1 |
| – NASDAQ |
–46 |
16 |
5 |
| Euro area |
|
|
|
| – STOXX |
–10 |
9 |
0 |
| United Kingdom |
|
|
|
| – FTSE |
–8 |
2 |
0 |
| Japan |
|
|
|
| – TOPIX |
–11 |
–4 |
–7 |
| Canada |
|
|
|
| – TSE 300 |
24 |
15 |
3 |
| Australia |
|
|
|
| – ASX 200 |
92 |
22 |
10 |
| MSCI Emerging Asia |
82 |
56 |
19 |
| MSCI Latin America |
273 |
45 |
12 |
| MSCI World |
6 |
12 |
3 |
|
| Source: Bloomberg |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
|
Past
year |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| Brazil |
–19 |
–8 |
| Canada |
–18 |
–11 |
| Australia |
–17 |
–9 |
| New Zealand |
–14 |
–1 |
| Euro area |
–13 |
–6 |
| Philippines |
–13 |
–4 |
| Sweden |
–12 |
–6 |
| India |
–12 |
–3 |
| South Africa |
–11 |
–7 |
| United Kingdom |
–9 |
–3 |
| Malaysia |
–9 |
–3 |
| Switzerland |
–9 |
–5 |
| Singapore |
–8 |
–5 |
| Thailand |
–7 |
0 |
| China |
–5 |
–2 |
| Japan |
–4 |
–6 |
| South Korea |
–3 |
–2 |
| Taiwan |
–1 |
–2 |
| Mexico |
–1 |
–1 |
| Indonesia |
0 |
–1 |
| Majors TWI |
–13 |
–8 |
| Broad TWI |
–9 |
–5 |
|
| Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 5: Change in Renminbi against Other Currencies
Per cent
|
Since end
2000 |
Since
revaluation(a) |
Past
year |
|
| United States |
11 |
9 |
6 |
| Japan |
10 |
11 |
1 |
| Euro area |
–28 |
–9 |
–8 |
| Taiwan |
9 |
12 |
4 |
| Korea |
–20 |
–3 |
2 |
| Hong Kong |
11 |
9 |
5 |
| Malaysia |
–3 |
–5 |
–3 |
| United Kingdom |
–21 |
–9 |
–4 |
| Singapore |
–8 |
–5 |
–2 |
| Canada |
–31 |
–17 |
–13 |
| Russia |
–3 |
–7 |
–3 |
| Thailand |
9 |
12 |
4 |
| Australia |
–34 |
–12 |
–13 |
| Mexico |
24 |
10 |
5 |
| India |
–6 |
–1 |
–7 |
| TWI |
–5 |
3 |
0 |
|
| (a) 21 July 2005 |
| Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
|
Past year |
Since
previous
Statement |
Deviation
from
post-float
average |
|
| Indonesia |
20 |
5 |
156 |
| US |
20 |
7 |
30 |
| Taiwan |
18 |
6 |
35 |
| South Korea |
16 |
5 |
27 |
| Japan |
15 |
1 |
10 |
| China |
13 |
6 |
51 |
| PNG |
13 |
3 |
105 |
| Singapore |
11 |
2 |
7 |
| Switzerland |
9 |
2 |
–3 |
| UK |
9 |
4 |
0 |
| South Africa |
6 |
–1 |
47 |
| Sweden |
6 |
1 |
11 |
| Euro area |
5 |
1 |
–5 |
| Philippines |
4 |
3 |
32 |
| New Zealand |
4 |
6 |
–3 |
| Canada |
–1 |
–5 |
–8 |
| TWI |
12 |
4 |
23 |
|
| Sources: RBA; Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 7: Demand and Output
Percentage change
|
March quarter
2007 |
June quarter
2007 |
Year to June
quarter 2007 |
|
| Domestic final demand |
1.8 |
1.8 |
5.6 |
| Change in inventories(a) |
0.6 |
–0.4 |
0.9 |
| GNE(b) |
1.9 |
1.0 |
5.8 |
| Net exports(a) |
–0.4 |
–0.1 |
–1.7 |
| GDP |
1.6 |
0.9 |
4.3 |
| Non-farm GDP |
1.8 |
1.2 |
5.2 |
| Farm GDP |
–6.8 |
–10.9 |
–26.3 |
| Memo item: |
|
|
|
Real GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade |
1.9 |
0.9 |
5.6 |
|
| (a) Contributions to GDP growth |
| (b) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 8: House Prices
Percentage change
|
June
quarter |
September
quarter |
Year to
September
quarter |
|
| Sydney |
3.4 |
1.5 |
5.2 |
| Melbourne |
5.9 |
6.7 |
17.8 |
| Brisbane |
6.3 |
4.0 |
18.1 |
| Adelaide |
5.7 |
5.1 |
16.2 |
| Perth |
–2.2 |
1.1 |
2.8 |
| Canberra |
3.7 |
3.9 |
11.2 |
| Hobart |
2.8 |
3.9 |
11.6 |
| Darwin |
–0.4 |
5.1 |
13.1 |
| Australia |
3.7 |
3.5 |
10.6 |
|
| Source: ABS |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
|
Share of gross production |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08(f) |
| Crops |
45 |
–31 |
7 |
| – Cereals |
17 |
–61 |
33 |
| – Non-cereal crops |
29 |
–13 |
0 |
| Livestock products |
43 |
–5 |
0 |
| Farm GDP(a) |
|
–25 |
5 |
|
| (a) Gross farm production less farm inputs |
| Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 10: Labour Market by State
Trend measure, per cent
|
Employment growth |
Unemployment rate |
|
|
|
|
Year to October 2007 |
October 2006 |
October 2007 |
|
| NSW |
1.7 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
| Victoria |
2.7 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
| Queensland |
3.1 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
| WA |
4.2 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
| SA |
1.2 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
| Tasmania |
2.3 |
6.1 |
5.3 |
| Australia |
2.5 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
|
| Source: ABS |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Mortgage Rates
As at 31 October 2007
|
Per cent of
outstanding loans |
Change
Basis points |
Level
Per cent |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
|
|
| Cash rate |
|
25 |
0 |
0 |
6.50 |
| Prime full-doc |
91 |
|
|
|
|
| Banks |
78 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
7.65 |
Credit unions and
building societies |
5 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
7.43 |
| Mortgage originators |
8 |
25 |
5 |
6 |
7.83 |
| Prime low-doc |
8 |
|
|
|
|
| Banks |
5 |
25 |
8 |
2 |
8.04 |
| Mortgage originators |
3 |
25 |
13 |
5 |
8.19 |
| Non-conforming |
1 |
40 |
62 |
0 |
9.90 |
|
| Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 12: Banks’ Business Lending Rates(a)
As at 31 October 2007
|
Share |
Change |
Level |
|
Per cent |
Basis points |
Per cent |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Oct |
| Cash rate |
|
25 |
0 |
0 |
6.50 |
| Large loans(b) |
65 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
7.28 |
| – bills |
29 |
13 |
16 |
15 |
7.42 |
| – variable-rate |
27 |
19 |
8 |
7 |
7.27 |
| – fixed-rate |
9 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6.82 |
| Small loans(b) |
35 |
17 |
3 |
6 |
8.34 |
| – bills |
7 |
13 |
16 |
15 |
7.69 |
| – variable-rate |
18 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
8.85 |
| – fixed-rate |
9 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7.88 |
|
| (a) Interest rates are RBA estimates. |
| (b) Large loans are those greater than $2 million; small loans are those less than $2 million. |
| Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
|
December
quarter
2006 |
March
quarter
2007 |
June
quarter
2007 |
September
quarter 2007
|
|
| Total credit |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
| Household |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
| – Owner-occupier housing |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
| – Investor housing |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
| – Personal |
0.7 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
–0.1 |
| Business |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
| Broad money |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
|
Quarterly |
Year-ended |
|
|
|
|
June
quarter
2007 |
September
quarter
2007 |
June
quarter
2007 |
September
quarter
2007 |
|
| CPI |
1.2 |
0.7 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| – Tradables |
2.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
–0.3 |
| – Tradables (ex food and petrol) |
0.8 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
| – Non-tradables |
0.7 |
1.1 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
| Underlying measures |
|
|
|
|
| Weighted median |
0.9 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
| Trimmed mean |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
| CPI ex volatile items(a) |
0.7 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
|
| (a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
|
Year to June 2008 |
Year to June 2009 |
|
|
|
|
May
2007 |
August
2007 |
November
2007 |
August
2007 |
November
2007 |
|
| Market economists(a) |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
| Union officials(b) |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
| (a) RBA survey |
| (b) Workplace Research Centre |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
|
Dec
2006 |
June
2007 |
Dec
2007 |
June
2008 |
Dec
2008 |
June
2009 |
Dec
2009 |
| Consumer price index |
3.3 |
2.1 |
2¾ |
3¼ |
3 |
2¾–3 |
2¾–3 |
| Underlying inflation |
3.0 |
2.8 |
3¼ |
3¼ |
3 |
2¾–3 |
2¾–3 |
|
| (a) Actual data to September 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 73, cash rate at 6.75 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$90 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$92 per barrel. |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Boxes
Table A1: Urban Fixed-asset Investment Expenditure in China
Per cent of GDP
|
2004 |
2006 |
|
| Total(a) |
37 |
42 |
| Of which: |
|
|
| Primary industry |
1 |
1 |
| Secondary industry |
14 |
18 |
| – Manufacturing |
9 |
12 |
| – Utilities |
3 |
4 |
| – Other |
2 |
2 |
| Tertiary industry |
22 |
24 |
| – Real estate |
9 |
10 |
| – Infrastructure |
4 |
5 |
| – Water & environmental management |
3 |
3 |
| – Other |
6 |
6 |
|
| (a) Includes land sales |
| Source: CEIC |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table A2: China’s Production and Imports
Per cent
|
Share of world |
|
Annual growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2001 |
2006 |
|
2006 |
|
|
| Production |
|
|
|
|
|
| Steel |
17 |
35 |
|
20 |
|
| Electricity |
12 |
17 |
(a) |
13 |
(a) |
| Aluminium |
14 |
28 |
|
20 |
|
| Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
| Coal |
1 |
4 |
|
46 |
|
| Copper |
12 |
12 |
|
–32 |
|
| Iron ore |
18 |
41 |
|
19 |
|
| Nickel |
5 |
22 |
|
8 |
|
|
| (a) Data for 2005 |
| Sources: ABARE; AME Mineral Economics; International Aluminium Institute; International Iron and Steel Institute; |
| Customs General Administration; CEIC; Energy Information Administration; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table D1: Banks’ Sources and Uses of Funds(a)
|
Level in July 2007 |
Change over August and September 2007 |
|
|
|
|
$ billion |
$ billion |
Per cent |
|
| Sources of funds |
1,804 |
143 |
7.9 |
| Domestic deposits |
759 |
29 |
3.8 |
| Domestic capital markets |
401 |
73 |
18.3 |
| – Certificates of deposit |
216 |
66 |
30.6 |
| – Other |
185 |
8 |
4.1 |
| Offshore capital markets |
486 |
13 |
2.7 |
| Other liabilities |
158 |
27 |
17 |
| Uses of funds |
1,918 |
145 |
7.6 |
| Domestic loans |
1,221 |
40 |
3.3 |
Domestic debt securities and
other financial assets |
354 |
69 |
19.5 |
| – Certificates of deposit |
71 |
49 |
69.8 |
| – Other |
283 |
20 |
7 |
| Offshore assets |
149 |
17 |
11.1 |
| Other assets |
194 |
19 |
9.8 |
|
| (a) Excludes securitisation |
| Sources: APRA; RBA |
|
