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STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY – NOVEMBER 2006
List of tables
Text | Boxes
Table 1: Changes in Monetary Policy
Table 2: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Table 3: US Dollar against Other Currencies
Table 4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 7: Labour Market by State
Table 8: Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity
Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
Table 12: Financial Aggregates
Table 13: Non-government Bond Issuance by Sector
Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Boxes
Table A1: Australia's Exports of Goods and Services by Destination
Table A2: Australia's Imports of Goods and Services by Origin
Current level Per cent |
Most recent change |
Expectations for next 6 months |
||
| United States | 5.25 |
↑ |
Jun 06 |
No change |
| Euro area | 3.25 |
↑ |
Oct 06 |
↑ 50 bps |
| Japan | 0.25 |
↑ |
Jul 06 |
↑ 25 bps |
| United Kingdom | 4.75 |
↑ |
Aug 06 |
↑ 50 bps |
| Canada | 4.25 |
↑ |
May 06 |
No change |
| New Zealand | 7.25 |
↑ |
Dec 05 |
↑ 25 bps |
| Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters | ||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
 |
Since 2000 peak |
2006 to date |
Since previous Statement |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | |||
| – Dow Jones | 4 |
14 |
8 |
| – S&P 500 | –9 |
11 |
8 |
| – NASDAQ | –53 |
8 |
14 |
| Euro area | |||
| – STOXX | –17 |
17 |
12 |
| United Kingdom | |||
| – FTSE | –10 |
11 |
7 |
| Japan | |||
| – TOPIX | –9 |
–3 |
2 |
| Canada | |||
| – TSE 300 | 9 |
10 |
4 |
| Australia | |||
| – ASX 200 | 62 |
15 |
9 |
| Source: Bloomberg | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
2006 to date |
Since previous Statement |
|
|---|---|---|
| Thailand | –11 |
–3 |
| United Kingdom | –10 |
0 |
| Sweden | –10 |
0 |
| Brazil | –8 |
–2 |
| Indonesia | –7 |
0 |
| Euro area | –7 |
1 |
| South Korea | –7 |
–3 |
| Philippines | –6 |
–3 |
| Singapore | –6 |
–1 |
| Switzerland | –5 |
2 |
| Australia | –5 |
–1 |
| Malaysia | –4 |
–1 |
| Canada | –3 |
0 |
| China | –3 |
–1 |
| India | –1 |
–4 |
| Japan | 0 |
3 |
| Taiwan | 0 |
0 |
| Mexico | 2 |
0 |
| New Zealand | 3 |
–6 |
| South Africa | 16 |
7 |
| Majors TWI | –5 |
1 |
| Broad TWI | –4 |
0 |
| Source: RBA | ||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
2006 to date |
Since previous Statement |
|
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 21 |
2 |
| New Zealand | 8 |
–1 |
| Japan | 6 |
1 |
| Taiwan | 5 |
1 |
| US | 5 |
1 |
| PNG | 2 |
1 |
| China | 2 |
0 |
| Canada | 2 |
3 |
| Switzerland | 0 |
2 |
| Philippines | –1 |
–1 |
| Singapore | –1 |
0 |
| Euro area | –2 |
1 |
| South Korea | –3 |
–2 |
| Indonesia | –3 |
1 |
| Sweden | –5 |
–1 |
| UK | –5 |
1 |
| TWI | 2 |
0 |
| Source: RBA | ||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
March qtr 2006 |
June qtr 2006 |
Year to June qtr 2006 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic final demand | 0.4 |
1.2 |
3.8 |
| Change in inventories(a) | 0 |
–0.8 |
–0.8 |
| GNE(b) | 0.8 |
0.5 |
3.1 |
| Net exports(a) | –0.1 |
–0.2 |
–1.2 |
| GDP | 0.7 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
| Memo item: | |||
| Real GDP adjusted for changes in the terms of trade |
0.6 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
| (a) Contributions to GDP growth | |||
| (b) Includes the statistical discrepancy | |||
| Source: ABS | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
APM |
REIA |
Residex |
ABS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep qtr |
Year to |
Sep qtr |
Year to |
Sep qtr |
Year to |
Year to |
|
2006 |
Sep qtr |
2006(a) |
Sep qtr |
2006 |
Sep qtr |
Jun qtr |
|
| Sydney | –0.9 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
–0.5 |
| Melbourne | –0.1 |
3 |
3 |
6.3 |
–0.4 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
| Brisbane | 0.2 |
6 |
.. |
.. |
0 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
| Adelaide | –0.3 |
6.3 |
0.8 |
3.6 |
0.3 |
2.3 |
7.3 |
| Perth | 4.9 |
38.5 |
.. |
.. |
–2.2 |
24.1 |
35.4 |
| Canberra | –1.4 |
2.8 |
1.8 |
7.2 |
0.7 |
8.7 |
6.7 |
| Hobart | 0.8 |
5 |
2.5 |
8.8 |
.. |
.. |
7.4 |
| Darwin | 4.7 |
18.2 |
.. |
.. |
0.5 |
5.3 |
18.7 |
| Australia | 0.4 |
6.8 |
.. |
.. |
–0.2(b) |
7.0(b) |
6.4 |
| (a) Seasonally adjusted by the RBA | |||||||
| (b) Excludes Hobart | |||||||
| Sources: ABS; APM; REIA; state REIs; RBA; Residex | |||||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Employment growth |
Unemployment rate |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Three-month-ended October 2006 |
Year-ended October 2006 |
October 2005 |
October 2006 |
|
| NSW | 0.3 |
1.9 |
5.4 |
5.1 |
| Victoria | 0.9 |
2.2 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
| Queensland | 1.6 |
3.8 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
| WA | 0.3 |
1.4 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
| SA | 1.2 |
3.2 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
| Tasmania | –1.4 |
0.9 |
7.4 |
6.5 |
| Australia | 0.7 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
| Source: ABS | ||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Annual productivity growth Per cent |
Annual growth in employment (hours worked) Per cent |
Implied employment effect on productivity(a) Percentage contribution |
|
| Agriculture | 5.9 |
–4.2 |
0.1 |
| Mining | –11.7 |
14.6 |
0.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 |
–0.7 |
0.0 |
| Electricity, gas & water | –5.1 |
6.8 |
0.1 |
| Construction | 1.4 |
5.1 |
–0.1 |
| Wholesale trade | 4.4 |
–1.2 |
–0.1 |
| Retail trade | 1.0 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
| Accommodation & restaurants | 3.2 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
| Transport & storage | 1.9 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
| Communication | 1.8 |
3.1 |
0.0 |
| Finance & insurance | 0.0 |
3.8 |
0.1 |
| Property & business services | –0.8 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
| Cultural & recreational | –2.0 |
6.5 |
–0.1 |
| Government & other | –0.6 |
–5.6 |
–0.1 |
| Total | 1.1 |
||
| (a) Over whole period | |||
| Sources: ABS; RBA | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Share of gross production 2005/06 |
Growth |
||
2002/03 |
2006/07(f) |
||
| Crops | 45 |
–29 |
–31 |
| Cereals | 18 |
–55 |
–60 |
| Non-cereal crops | 27 |
–12 |
–13 |
| Livestock products | 45 |
–8 |
–3 |
| Meat and livestock | 32 |
–8 |
–2 |
| Wool | 5 |
–6 |
–7 |
| Dairy | 8 |
–7 |
–3 |
| Gross production(a) | –19 |
–16 |
|
| Farm GDP(b) | –26 |
–20 |
|
| (a) Includes services to agriculture | |||
| (b) Gross farm production less farm inputs | |||
| Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Three months to October 2006 |
Year to October 2006 |
|
|---|---|---|
| |
||
| RBA Index | 0.9 |
14.9 |
| Rural | –0.7 |
7.4 |
| – Wheat | 4.7 |
19.3 |
| – Beef & veal | 6.8 |
8.1 |
| – Wool | 1.4 |
10.0 |
| – Sugar | –27.2 |
–6.4 |
| Base metals | 10.4 |
82.2 |
| – Aluminium | 6.0 |
34.8 |
| – Copper | –2.7 |
81.3 |
| – Nickel | 24.6 |
156.9 |
| Other resources | –2.4 |
0.1 |
| – Coking coal(a) | –7.2 |
–10.9 |
| – Steaming coal(a) | 0.3 |
–7.1 |
| – Iron ore(a) | 3.5 |
19.5 |
| – Gold | –7.1 |
22.5 |
| Memo item | ||
| Oil in US$(b) | –20.9 |
–5.6 |
| (a) Latest available data are for September. | ||
| (b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index. | ||
| Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA | ||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Cash rate |
Actual rate on new housing loans(a) |
Actual business rate(a) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | 6.25 |
7.5 |
7.85 |
| Deviation from decade average | 1.00 |
0.8 |
–0.10 |
| (a) Assumes full pass-through of August and November tightenings | |||
| Sources: APRA; RBA | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Average monthly growth |
Year to September |
||
|---|---|---|---|
First half of year |
September quarter |
||
| Total credit | 1.2 |
1.0 |
14.4 |
| Household | 1.1 |
1.0 |
13.6 |
| – Housing | 1.2 |
1.1 |
14.2 |
| – Personal | 0.8 |
0.7 |
9.5 |
| Business | 1.2 |
1.0 |
15.9 |
| Broad money | 1.0 |
1.1 |
11.2 |
| Source: RBA | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Sector |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June half |
September quarter |
||||
| Bond issues by Australian entities | |||||
| Onshore | |||||
| Financial institutions | 9.9 |
14.5 |
20.9 |
9.8 |
5.7 |
| Non-financial corporations | 5.6 |
8.0 |
8.9 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
| Asset-backed | 20.7 |
25.0 |
32.2 |
22.7 |
9.5 |
| Total | 36.1 |
47.5 |
62.1 |
36.8 |
18.4 |
| Offshore | |||||
| Financial institutions | 51.5 |
64.9 |
52.3 |
37.6 |
20.2 |
| Non-financial corporations | 14.7 |
13.6 |
16.4 |
2.4 |
5.4 |
| Asset-backed | 24.3 |
29.8 |
25.6 |
11.5 |
8.6 |
| Total | 90.5 |
108.2 |
94.3 |
51.4 |
34.2 |
| Total | 126.6 |
155.7 |
156.4 |
88.2 |
52.6 |
| A$ bond issues by non-resident entities | |||||
| Onshore | 7.1 |
21.3 |
26.5 |
20.6 |
6.1 |
| Offshore | 24.8 |
21.6 |
14.1 |
7.6 |
2.1 |
| Total | 31.9 |
42.9 |
40.6 |
28.2 |
8.2 |
| Source: RBA | |||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Quarterly |
Year-ended |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
June quarter 2006 |
September quarter 2006 |
June quarter 2006 |
September quarter 2006 |
|
| CPI | 1.6 |
0.9 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
| – Tradables | 2.7 |
0.8 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
| – Tradables (ex food and petrol) | 0.1 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
| Non-tradables | 0.8 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
| Underlying measures | ||||
| Weighted median | 0.9 |
0.8 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
| Trimmed mean | 0.9 |
0.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
| CPI ex volatile items(a) | 0.6 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
| (a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol | ||||
| Sources: ABS; RBA | ||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Year to June 2007 |
Year to June 2008 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 2006 |
August 2006 |
November 2006 |
August 2006 |
November 2006 |
|
| Market economists(a) | 2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
| Union officials(b) | 3.5 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
| (a) RBA survey | |||||
| (b) Workplace Research Centre | |||||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Share of total exports 2005, per cent |
Average annual growth 2000–2005, per cent |
Rank in 2000 |
|
| Japan | 17.9 |
4.4 |
1 |
| China | 10.6 |
22.5 |
7 |
| United States | 7.8 |
–3.9 |
2 |
| Korea | 6.9 |
4.5 |
3 |
| New Zealand | 6.7 |
6.1 |
4 |
| United Kingdom | 5.2 |
4.5 |
6 |
| India | 4.5 |
28.8 |
13 |
| Singapore | 3.6 |
–3.9 |
5 |
| Taiwan | 3.4 |
–0.2 |
8 |
| Thailand | 2.6 |
13.8 |
12 |
| – North America | 9.6 |
–2.3 |
|
| – European Union | 12.9 |
3.5 |
|
| – Asia | 62.0 |
5.9 |
|
| Total | 4.2 |
||
| Source: ABS | |||
|
..................................................................................................................................
|
Share of total imports 2005, per cent |
Average annual growth 2000–2005, per cent |
Rank in 2000 |
|
| United States | 14.4 |
–1.4 |
1 |
| China | 11.6 |
18.1 |
4 |
| Japan | 9.8 |
2.0 |
2 |
| Singapore | 5.9 |
14.7 |
7 |
| United Kingdom | 5.3 |
–1.0 |
3 |
| Germany | 5.1 |
7.6 |
5 |
| New Zealand | 3.8 |
3.8 |
6 |
| Malaysia | 3.5 |
6.1 |
8 |
| Thailand | 3.0 |
10.8 |
13 |
| France | 2.9 |
15.8 |
14 |
| – North America | 16.1 |
–1.0 |
|
| – European Union | 23.3 |
6.6 |
|
| – Asia | 48.7 |
7.8 |
|
| Total | 5.4 |
||
| Source: ABS | |||
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