STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY – MAY 2008
List of tables
Table 1: World GDP
Table 2: Selected Bank Announcements
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 6: Demand and Output
Table 7: National House Prices
Table 8: Terms of Trade
Table 9: Credit Aggregates
Table 10: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates
Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 13: Output and Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
Table C1: Funding of Business and Household Debt
..................................................................................................................................  |
Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IMF forecasts (April 2008) |
|
| United States |
2.9 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
| Euro area |
2.9 |
2.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
| Japan |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
| China |
11.6 |
11.9 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
| Other east Asia(b) |
5.5 |
5.7 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
| India |
9.7 |
9.1 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
| Emerging Europe |
6.6 |
5.8 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
| Latin America |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
| World |
5.1 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
| Australia’s trading partners(c) |
5.1 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
|
| (a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified |
| (b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates |
| (c) Weighted using merchandise export shares |
| Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 2: Selected Bank Announcements
US$ billion
|
Q1 2008
write-downs |
Q1 actual
and planned
capital raisings |
|
| UBS |
19.1 |
15.1 |
| Citigroup |
15.2 |
10.5 |
| Merrill Lynch |
11.8 |
2.6 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland |
11.8 |
23.9 |
| HBOS |
5.6 |
7.9 |
| Credit Suisse |
5.2 |
|
| Deutsche Bank |
4.3 |
|
| Washington Mutual |
3.5 |
7.0 |
| Wachovia |
2.8 |
7.0 |
| JPMorgan |
2.5 |
6.0 |
| Lehman Brothers |
2.4 |
4.0 |
| Morgan Stanley |
2.3 |
|
| Mizuho |
2.2 |
|
| BayernLB(a) |
2.1 |
|
| Goldman Sachs |
2.0 |
|
| Wells Fargo |
2.0 |
|
| Bank of America |
1.9 |
|
| National City |
1.4 |
7.0 |
| Nomura |
1.3 |
|
| CIT |
0.3 |
1.0 |
| WestLB(a) |
|
7.8 |
| Total |
99.7 |
99.8 |
|
| (a) For the year 2007 |
| Source: company reports |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
|
Since 2000 peak |
Past year |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
| – Dow Jones |
11 |
–2 |
6 |
| – S&P 500 |
–7 |
–6 |
6 |
| – NASDAQ |
–51 |
–3 |
8 |
| Euro area |
|
|
|
| – STOXX |
–21 |
–14 |
5 |
| United Kingdom |
|
|
|
| – FTSE |
–10 |
–5 |
9 |
| Japan |
|
|
|
| – TOPIX |
–22 |
–21 |
6 |
| Canada |
|
|
|
| – TSE 300 |
27 |
4 |
12 |
| Australia |
|
|
|
| – ASX 200 |
63 |
–10 |
2 |
| MSCI Emerging Asia |
61 |
20 |
7 |
| MSCI Latin America |
292 |
26 |
16 |
| MSCI World |
–2 |
–6 |
7 |
|
| Source: Bloomberg |
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
|
Past year |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| Brazil |
–18 |
–6 |
| Australia |
–13 |
–5 |
| Switzerland |
–13 |
–4 |
| Japan |
–13 |
–2 |
| Euro area |
–12 |
–6 |
| Sweden |
–11 |
–7 |
| Philippines |
–11 |
5 |
| Singapore |
–10 |
–4 |
| Thailand |
–9 |
–4 |
| China |
–9 |
–3 |
| Canada |
–9 |
0 |
| Malaysia |
–8 |
–2 |
| Taiwan |
–8 |
–5 |
| New Zealand |
–7 |
0 |
| Mexico |
–3 |
–3 |
| India |
0 |
4 |
| United Kingdom |
1 |
–1 |
| Indonesia |
4 |
0 |
| South Africa |
9 |
–3 |
| South Korea |
10 |
7 |
| Majors TWI |
–10 |
–3 |
| Broad TWI |
–8 |
–2 |
|
| Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Thomson Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
|
Past year |
Since previous
Statement |
Deviation from
post-float average |
|
| South Korea |
25 |
13 |
43 |
| South Africa |
25 |
3 |
70 |
| Indonesia |
19 |
6 |
156 |
| UK |
17 |
6 |
9 |
| US |
15 |
6 |
32 |
| New Zealand |
7 |
6 |
–2 |
| Taiwan |
6 |
1 |
29 |
| PNG |
5 |
3 |
99 |
| Canada |
4 |
6 |
2 |
| China |
4 |
4 |
44 |
| Singapore |
3 |
2 |
3 |
| Sweden |
3 |
–1 |
8 |
| Euro area |
1 |
0 |
–8 |
| Japan |
1 |
5 |
4 |
| Switzerland |
0 |
2 |
–7 |
| TWI |
8 |
5 |
22 |
|
| Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
|
September
quarter 2007 |
December
quarter 2007 |
Year to December
quarter 2007 |
|
| Domestic final demand |
0.7 |
1.6 |
5.7 |
| GNE(a) |
1.2 |
1.5 |
5.6 |
| Net exports(b) |
–0.2 |
–1.0 |
–1.8 |
| GDP |
1.1 |
0.6 |
3.9 |
| Non-farm GDP |
0.7 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
| Farm GDP |
19.7 |
–2.4 |
1.2 |
| Memo item: |
|
|
|
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade |
0.9 |
0.7 |
4.2 |
|
| (a) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy
|
| (b) Contribution to GDP growth
|
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 7: National House Prices
Percentage change
|
|
March quarter
2008 |
Year to March quarter
2008 |
|
| ABS |
4.1 |
1.1 |
13.8 |
| RP Data-Rismark |
2.8 |
1.1 |
11.0 |
| APM |
3.8 |
0.4 |
10.7 |
|
| Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 8: Terms of Trade
Percentage change; March Qtr 2003–Dec Qtr 2007
|
| Russia |
64 |
| Norway |
44 |
| Australia(a) |
39 |
| Canada |
18 |
| New Zealand |
18 |
| Sweden |
1 |
| Germany |
–1 |
| United Kingdom |
–1 |
| Italy |
–2 |
| France |
–5 |
| United States |
–5 |
| South Korea |
–11 |
| Japan |
–23 |
|
| (a) Does not include the effect of this year’s contract re-negotiations. If this is included, the cumulative increase since March quarter 2003 is estimated to be approximately 65 per cent. |
| Sources: OECD; State Statistical Office (Russia) |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 9: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
|
June
quarter
2007 |
September
quarter
2007 |
December
quarter
2007 |
March
quarter
2008 |
|
| Total credit |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
| Household |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| – Owner-occupier housing |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
| – Investor housing |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
| – Personal |
2.1 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
–0.2 |
| Business |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 10: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
|
Current level |
Change since: |
|
|
|
|
6 May 2008 |
End Jan 2008 |
End Jul 2007 |
|
| Cash rate |
7.25 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
| Housing loans |
|
|
|
| Prime-full doc |
|
|
|
| Banks |
8.83 |
0.74 |
1.39 |
| Credit unions and building societies |
8.72 |
0.76 |
1.35 |
| Mortgage originators |
8.92 |
0.86 |
1.54 |
| Prime low doc |
|
|
|
| Banks |
9.27 |
0.79 |
1.51 |
| Mortgage originators |
9.49 |
0.95 |
1.69 |
| Non-conforming |
12.01 |
0.75 |
2.26 |
| Personal loans |
|
|
|
| Margin loans |
10.40 |
0.74 |
1.44 |
| Standard credit cards |
19.38 |
0.81 |
1.59 |
| Low-rate credit cards |
12.54 |
0.77 |
1.37 |
| Unsecured term loans |
14.65 |
0.76 |
2.03 |
| Small business |
|
|
|
| Term loans |
|
|
|
| Residentially secured |
9.89 |
0.81 |
1.59 |
| Other security |
10.48 |
0.81 |
1.59 |
| Overdraft |
|
|
|
| Residentially secured |
10.65 |
0.86 |
1.71 |
| Other security |
11.55 |
0.86 |
1.71 |
| Average actual rate(a) |
9.91 |
0.70 |
1.35 |
| Large business |
|
|
|
| Average actual rate(a) |
8.20 |
0.65 |
1.28 |
|
| (a) RBA estimate for end of April |
| Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
|
Quarterly |
Year-ended |
|
|
|
|
December
quarter
2007 |
March
quarter
2008 |
December
quarter
2007 |
March
quarter
2008 |
|
| CPI |
0.9 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
| – Tradables |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
| – Tradables (ex food and petrol) |
0.0 |
–0.2 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
| – Non-tradables |
1.3 |
1.7 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
| Underlying measures |
|
|
|
|
| Weighted median |
1.1 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
| Trimmed mean |
1.0 |
1.2 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
| CPI ex volatile items(a) |
1.0 |
1.2 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
|
| (a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
|
Year to June 2009 |
Year to June 2010 |
|
|
|
|
November
2007 |
February
2008 |
May
2008 |
May
2008 |
|
| Market economists(a) |
2.6 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
| Union officials(b) |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
|
| (a) RBA survey |
| (b) Workplace Research Centre |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 13: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
|
Dec
2007 |
Mar
2008 |
June
2008 |
Dec
2008 |
June
2009 |
Dec
2009 |
Jun
2010 |
Dec
2010 |
|
| GDP |
3.9 |
3 |
2½ |
2¼ |
2¾ |
2½ |
2½ |
2¾ |
| Non-farm GDP |
4.0 |
3 |
2¼ |
1¾ |
2¼ |
2½ |
2½ |
2¾ |
| CPI |
3.0 |
4.2 |
4¼ |
4½ |
3½ |
3¼ |
3 |
2¾ |
| Underlying inflation |
3.6 |
4.2 |
4¼ |
4 |
3½ |
3¼ |
3 |
2¾ |
|
| (a) Actual GDP data to December 2007 and actual inflation data to March 2008. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.94, TWI at 71, cash rate at 7.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$116 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$120 per barrel. |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table C1: Funding of Business and Household Debt
|
Outstandings ($ billion) |
Per cent of total outstandings |
|
|
|
|
Mar 1998 |
Mar 2008 |
Mar 1998 |
Mar 2008 |
|
| Total debt |
596 |
1,956 |
100 |
100 |
| Borrowed by: |
|
|
|
|
| – Businesses |
318 |
867 |
53 |
44 |
| – Households |
278 |
1,089 |
47 |
56 |
| Funded by: |
|
|
|
|
| – Intermediaries |
529 |
1,620 |
89 |
83 |
| – Securitisation |
19 |
196 |
3 |
10 |
| – Corporate debt |
49 |
141 |
8 |
7 |
|
| Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA |
|
