STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY – MAY 2007
List of tables
Text | Box
Table 1: Commodity Prices
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 6: Demand and Output
Table 7: Housing Prices
Table 8: Recent Trends in Resource Export Volumes
Table 9: Financial Aggregates
Table 10: Non-government Net Bond Issuance by Sector
Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 13: RBA Inflation Forecasts
Box
Table B1: Labour Force Status
..................................................................................................................................  |
Table 1: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
|
Three months to
April 2007
|
Year to
April 2007 |
|
| RBA index |
4.5 |
8.4 |
| Rural |
–2.5 |
3.3 |
| – Wheat |
1.2 |
6.1 |
| – Beef & veal |
–6.2 |
0.2 |
| – Wool |
4.3 |
38.3 |
| – Sugar |
–10.4 |
–43.1 |
| Base metals |
16.4 |
39.8 |
| – Aluminium |
–1.0 |
2.6 |
| – Copper |
32.9 |
15.3 |
| – Nickel |
34.5 |
165.9 |
| – Zinc |
–8.1 |
10.6 |
| Other resources |
1.8 |
–1.4 |
| – Coking coal(a) |
–1.9 |
–18.6 |
| – Steaming coal(a) |
4.1 |
–1.4 |
| – Iron ore(a) |
1.7 |
14.9 |
| – Gold |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| Memo item |
|
|
| Oil in US$(b) |
16.7 |
–8.0 |
|
| (a) Latest available data are for February. |
| (b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index. |
| Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
|
Current level
Per cent |
|
Most recent
change |
|
Expectations for
next 6 months |
|
| United States |
5.25 |
↑ |
Jun 06 |
|
No change |
| Euro area |
3.75 |
↑ |
Mar 07 |
↑ |
50 bps |
| Japan |
0.50 |
↑ |
Feb 07 |
↑ |
25 bps |
| United Kingdom |
5.25 |
↑ |
Jan 07 |
↑ |
50 bps |
| Canada |
4.25 |
↑ |
May 06 |
|
No change |
| New Zealand |
7.75 |
↑ |
Apr 07 |
|
No change |
|
| Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
|
Since 2000
peak |
2007 to
date |
Since
previous
Statement |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
| – Dow Jones |
12 |
5 |
4 |
| – S&P 500 |
–3 |
5 |
3 |
| – NASDAQ |
–50 |
5 |
2 |
| Euro area |
|
|
|
| – STOXX |
–9 |
8 |
4 |
| United Kingdom |
|
|
|
| – FTSE |
–7 |
3 |
1 |
| Japan |
|
|
|
| – TOPIX |
–4 |
1 |
–2 |
| Canada |
|
|
|
| – TSE 300 |
18 |
4 |
2 |
| Australia |
|
|
|
| – ASX 200 |
82 |
8 |
4 |
| MSCI Emerging Asia |
31 |
4 |
2 |
| MSCI Latin America |
204 |
8 |
4 |
| MSCI World |
3 |
5 |
2 |
|
| Source: Bloomberg |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
|
2006 |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| Sweden |
–14 |
–4 |
| Thailand |
–12 |
–3 |
| United Kingdom |
–12 |
–2 |
| Euro area |
–10 |
–4 |
| Brazil |
–9 |
–3 |
| Indonesia |
–9 |
0 |
| Philippines |
–8 |
–2 |
| Singapore |
–8 |
–1 |
| South Korea |
–8 |
0 |
| Malaysia |
–7 |
–2 |
| Australia |
–7 |
–6 |
| Switzerland |
–7 |
–2 |
| China |
–3 |
–1 |
| New Zealand |
–3 |
–8 |
| India |
–2 |
–7 |
| Taiwan |
–1 |
1 |
| Canada |
0 |
–6 |
| Japan |
1 |
–1 |
| Mexico |
2 |
0 |
| South Africa |
11 |
–2 |
| Majors TWI |
–5 |
–4 |
| Broad TWI |
–4 |
–3 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
|
2006 |
2007 to
date |
Since
previous
Statement |
|
| South Africa |
19 |
5 |
3 |
| Japan |
9 |
5 |
5 |
| US |
8 |
5 |
6 |
| Canada |
8 |
0 |
–1 |
| Taiwan |
7 |
7 |
7 |
| PNG |
6 |
6 |
7 |
| New Zealand |
5 |
0 |
–1 |
| China |
4 |
3 |
5 |
| Switzerland |
1 |
4 |
3 |
| Philippines |
0 |
1 |
4 |
| South Korea |
0 |
5 |
5 |
| Singapore |
–1 |
4 |
5 |
| Indonesia |
–1 |
5 |
6 |
| Euro area |
–3 |
1 |
1 |
| UK |
–5 |
3 |
4 |
| Sweden |
–7 |
2 |
2 |
| TWI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
|
September
qtr 2006
|
December
qtr 2006 |
Year to December
qtr 2006 |
|
| Domestic final demand |
0.3 |
1.3 |
3.7 |
| Change in inventories(a) |
0.0 |
0.7 |
–0.2 |
| GNE(b) |
0.1 |
2.2 |
4.0 |
| Net exports(a) |
0.2 |
–1.3 |
–1.4 |
| GDP |
0.3 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
| Non-farm GDP |
0.7 |
1.4 |
3.5 |
| Farm GDP |
–11.5 |
–11.2 |
–22.8 |
| Memo item: |
|
|
|
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade |
0.8 |
1.4 |
4.2 |
|
| (a) Contributions to GDP growth |
| (b) Includes the statistical discrepancy |
| Sources: ABS, RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 7: Housing Prices(a)
Percentage change
|
APM
(Mix-adjusted index) |
Residex
(Repeat-sales index) |
RP Data/Rismark
(Hedonic index) |
|
|
|
|
|
Mar qtr
2007 |
Year to
Mar qtr |
Mar qtr
2007 |
Year to
Mar qtr |
Mar qtr
2007 |
Year to
Mar qtr |
|
| Sydney |
–1 |
–1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
| Melbourne |
2 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
| Brisbane |
1 |
7 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
9 |
| Adelaide |
2 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
| Perth |
–1 |
21 |
–1 |
13 |
–1 |
23 |
| Canberra |
0 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
6 |
| Hobart |
0 |
4 |
–1 |
3 |
.. |
.. |
| Darwin |
–1 |
16 |
2 |
–1 |
–2 |
11 |
| Australia |
0 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
|
| (a) Houses and units except for APM data for Canberra, Hobart and Darwin which are houses only |
| Sources: APM; RBA; Residex; RP Data/Rismark |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 8: Recent Trends in Resource Export Volumes
Average annual growth, per cent
|
2000 to
2004 |
2005 to
2006 |
|
| Total resources |
1.3 |
4.4 |
| – Metal ores & minerals |
6.0 |
5.0 |
| – Coal, coke & briquettes |
5.8 |
1.7 |
| – Other mineral fuels |
–0.9 |
10.5 |
| – Gold |
–6.7 |
2.9 |
| – Metals |
–4.2 |
1.7 |
|
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 9: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, percentage change
|
June
quarter
2006 |
September
quarter
2006 |
December
quarter
2006 |
March
quarter
2007 |
|
| Total credit |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
| Household |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
| – Owner-occupier housing |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
| – Investor housing |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
| – Personal |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
| Business |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
| Broad money |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 10: Non-government Net Bond Issuance by Sector
$ billion
Sector |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007
March
quarter |
|
| Bond issues by Australian entities |
|
|
|
|
|
| Onshore |
|
|
|
|
|
| Financial institutions |
3.8 |
8.8 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
4.7 |
| Non-financial corporates |
2.8 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
6.9 |
1.3 |
| Asset-backed |
10.7 |
6.7 |
15.5 |
19.6 |
7.3 |
| Total |
17.3 |
19.8 |
36.0 |
43.3 |
13.3 |
| Offshore |
|
|
|
|
|
| Financial institutions |
26.2 |
36.5 |
26.1 |
33.2 |
4.6 |
| Non-financial corporates |
9.7 |
11.6 |
9.4 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
| Asset-backed |
8.8 |
14.6 |
6.4 |
8.6 |
1.0 |
| Total |
44.6 |
62.7 |
41.9 |
47.2 |
11.2 |
| Total |
61.9 |
82.5 |
78.0 |
90.5 |
24.5 |
| A$ bond issues by non-resident entities |
|
|
|
|
|
| Onshore |
2.6 |
18.0 |
22.9 |
26.9 |
10.8 |
| Offshore |
23.1 |
18.1 |
5.4 |
–2.4 |
–1.3 |
| Total |
25.7 |
36.1 |
28.2 |
24.5 |
9.5 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
|
Quarterly |
Year-ended |
|
|
|
|
December
quarter
2006 |
March
quarter
2007 |
December
quarter
2006 |
March
quarter
2007 |
|
| CPI |
–0.1 |
0.1 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
| – Tradables |
–1.4 |
–1.0 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
| – Tradables (ex food and petrol) |
–0.1 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
| Non-tradables |
0.8 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
| Underlying measures |
|
|
|
|
| Weighted median |
0.5 |
0.5 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
| Trimmed mean |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
| CPI ex volatile items(a) |
0.5 |
0.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
|
| (a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
|
Year to December 2007 |
Year to December 2008 |
|
|
|
|
November
2006 |
February
2007 |
May
2007 |
February
2007 |
May
2007 |
|
| Market economists(a) |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
| Union officials(b) |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
|
| (a) RBA survey |
| (b) Workplace Research Centre |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 13: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
|
June
2006 |
Dec
2006 |
June
2007 |
Dec
2007 |
June
2008 |
Dec
2008 |
June
2009 |
|
| Consumer price index |
4.0 |
3.3 |
1¾ |
2¼ |
2½–3 |
2½–3 |
2½–3 |
| Underlying inflation |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2½ |
2½ |
2½–3 |
2½–3 |
2½–3 |
|
| (a) Actual data to March 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.83, TWI at 67, cash rate at 6.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$65 per barrel. |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Box
Table B1: Labour Force Status
Per cent of civilian population aged 15 to 69
|
September 1992 |
September 2001 |
September 2006 |
|
| Labour force |
70.2 |
72.2 |
74.2 |
| Employed |
62.7 |
67.3 |
70.6 |
| Unemployed |
7.5 |
4.9 |
3.6 |
| Not in the labour force |
29.8 |
27.8 |
25.8 |
| Marginally attached |
6.9 |
6.0 |
5.1 |
| – Discouraged job seekers |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| Not marginally attached |
22.9 |
21.8 |
20.7 |
| – Do not want to work |
20.4 |
18.1 |
16.8 |
|
| Source: ABS |
|
|
|
|
