STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY – FEBRUARY 2008
List of tables
Table 1: World GDP
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Table 4: Changes in the US Dollar against Other Currencies
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 6: Demand and Output
Table 7: House Prices
Table 8: Volume of Farm Production
Table 9: Labour Market by State
Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Household Lending Rates
Table 12: Intermediaries' Variable Business Lending Rates
Table 13: Measures of Consumer Prices
Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 15: Output and Inflation Forecasts
..................................................................................................................................  |
Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
|
estimates |
IMF forecasts (d) |
|
| United States |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
| Euro area |
2.9 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
| Japan |
2.4 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
| China |
11.1 |
11.4 |
10.0 |
| Other east Asia(b) |
5.4 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
| India |
9.6 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
| World |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
| Australia’s trading partners(c) |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
|
| (a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified. PPP weights have been updated to reflect the most recent data from the International Comparison Program. |
| (b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates |
| (c) Weighted using merchandise export shares |
| (d) Forecasts from the 29 January World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update where available, otherwise lowest of January Consensus and October WEO |
| Sources: CEIC; Consensus Economics; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
|
Current level
Per cent |
Most recent
change |
Expectations for
next 6 months |
|
| United States |
3.00 |
↓ |
Jan 08 |
↓ 100 bps |
| Euro area |
4.00 |
↑ |
Jun 07 |
↓ 50 bps |
| Japan |
0.50 |
↑ |
Feb 07 |
No change |
| United Kingdom |
5.50 |
↓ |
Dec 07 |
↓ 75 bps |
| Canada |
4.00 |
↓ |
Jan 08 |
↓ 75 bps |
| New Zealand |
8.25 |
↑ |
Jul 07 |
No change |
|
| Sources: Bloomberg; central banks; Reuters |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
|
Since 2000 peak
|
Past year
|
Since previous
Statement |
|
| United States |
|
|
|
| – Dow Jones |
4 |
–4 |
–8 |
| – S&P 500 |
–13 |
–9 |
–10 |
| – NASDAQ |
–55 |
–9 |
–17 |
| Euro area |
|
|
|
| – STOXX |
–23 |
–13 |
–15 |
| United Kingdom |
|
|
|
| – FTSE |
–15 |
–8 |
–8 |
| Japan |
|
|
|
| – TOPIX |
–26 |
–25 |
–17 |
| Canada |
|
|
|
| – TSE 300 |
13 |
–2 |
–9 |
| Australia |
|
|
|
| – ASX 200 |
61 |
–5 |
–16 |
| MSCI Emerging Asia |
52 |
18 |
–17 |
| MSCI Latin America |
245 |
19 |
–6 |
| MSCI World |
–7 |
–8 |
–11 |
|
| Source: Bloomberg |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 4: Changes in the US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
|
Past
year |
Since previous
Statement |
|
| Philippines |
–17 |
–7 |
| Brazil |
–16 |
0 |
| Canada |
–15 |
8 |
| Australia |
–13 |
5 |
| New Zealand |
–13 |
–1 |
| Euro area |
–11 |
0 |
| Switzerland |
–11 |
–3 |
| Japan |
–11 |
–5 |
| India |
–10 |
0 |
| Sweden |
–8 |
2 |
| Thailand |
–8 |
–3 |
| Singapore |
–8 |
–2 |
| Malaysia |
–8 |
–3 |
| China |
–7 |
–4 |
| Taiwan |
–3 |
–1 |
| Mexico |
–1 |
0 |
| UK |
1 |
7 |
| South Korea |
1 |
4 |
| Indonesia |
2 |
1 |
| South Africa |
7 |
18 |
| Majors TWI |
–12 |
2 |
| Broad TWI |
–9 |
1 |
|
| Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Reuters |
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Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
|
Past
year
|
Since
previous
Statement
|
Deviation
from post-float
average
|
|
| South Africa |
24 |
14 |
66 |
| Indonesia |
18 |
–2 |
146 |
| South Korea |
17 |
1 |
28 |
| UK |
16 |
4 |
3 |
| US |
15 |
–3 |
25 |
| Taiwan |
12 |
–4 |
28 |
| PNG |
8 |
–3 |
96 |
| China |
7 |
–6 |
40 |
| Singapore |
7 |
–5 |
1 |
| Sweden |
6 |
–1 |
9 |
| Euro area |
2 |
–3 |
–8 |
| Japan |
2 |
–8 |
0 |
| Switzerland |
2 |
–6 |
–9 |
| New Zealand |
–1 |
–5 |
–8 |
| Canada |
–2 |
5 |
–4 |
| TWI |
8 |
–4 |
18 |
|
| Source: RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
|
June quarter
2007 |
September quarter
2007 |
Year to September
quarter 2007 |
|
| Domestic final demand |
1.4 |
0.8 |
5.5 |
| Change in inventories(a) |
–0.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
| GNE(b) |
0.9 |
1.0 |
6.0 |
| Net exports(a) |
–0.2 |
–0.1 |
–1.9 |
| GDP |
0.7 |
1.0 |
4.3 |
| Non-farm GDP |
1.0 |
0.6 |
4.5 |
| Farm GDP |
–13.0 |
24 |
–6.9 |
| Memo item: |
|
|
|
Real GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade |
0.7 |
0.8 |
4.9 |
|
| (a) Contributions to GDP growth |
| (b) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 7: House Prices
Percentage change
|
September
quarter
|
December
quarter
|
Year to
December
quarter |
|
| Sydney |
1.8 |
2.4 |
8.0 |
| Melbourne |
4.8 |
3.4 |
18.1 |
| Brisbane |
4.1 |
5.4 |
21.6 |
| Adelaide |
5.1 |
6.0 |
20.2 |
| Perth |
1.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
| Canberra |
3.3 |
4.4 |
14.3 |
| Hobart |
2.2 |
3.7 |
11.1 |
| Darwin |
4.3 |
2.3 |
11.1 |
| Australia |
3.2 |
3.2 |
12.3 |
|
| Source: ABS |
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Table 8: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
|
Share of gross production |
Growth |
|
|
|
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08(f) |
|
| Crops |
45 |
–31 |
8 |
| Cereals |
17 |
–61 |
37 |
| Non-cereal crops |
29 |
–14 |
0 |
| Livestock products |
43 |
–5 |
–1 |
| Farm GDP(a) |
–23 |
2 |
|
| (a) Gross farm production less farm inputs |
| Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA |
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Table 9: Labour Market by State
Trend measure, per cent
|
Employment growth |
Unemployment rate
|
|
|
|
|
Year to December 2007 |
December 2006 |
December 2007 |
|
| NSW |
1.9 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
| Victoria |
3.1 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
| Queensland |
2.9 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
| WA |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
| SA |
2.3 |
5.2 |
5 |
| Tasmania |
2.9 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
| Australia |
2.6 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
|
| Source: ABS |
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Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
|
March
quarter
2007 |
June
quarter
2007 |
September
quarter
2007 |
December
quarter
2007 |
|
| Total credit |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
| Household |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
| – Owner-occupier housing |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
| – Investor housing |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
| – Personal |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Business |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| Broad money |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
|
| Source: RBA |
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Table 11: Intermediaries’ Variable Household Lending Rates
Per cent
|
|
Change since: |
|
Level as at |
|
|
31 Jan 2008 |
End Oct 2007 |
End Jul 2007 |
|
| Cash rate |
6.75 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
| Housing loans |
|
|
|
| Prime full-doc |
|
|
|
| Banks |
8.07 |
0.40 |
0.65 |
| Credit unions and |
|
|
|
| building societies |
7.89 |
0.34 |
0.59 |
| Mortgage originators |
8.07 |
0.34 |
0.69 |
| Prime low-doc |
|
|
|
| Banks |
8.39 |
0.36 |
0.71 |
| Mortgage originators |
8.53 |
0.36 |
0.78 |
| Non-conforming |
10.59 |
0.56 |
1.51 |
| Personal loans |
|
|
|
| Margin loans |
9.66 |
0.33 |
0.69 |
| Standard credit cards |
18.57 |
0.39 |
0.78 |
| Low-rate credit cards |
11.76 |
0.41 |
0.60 |
| Unsecured term loans |
13.89 |
0.46 |
1.28 |
|
| Sources: Cannex; Perpetual; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 12: Intermediaries’ Variable Business Lending Rates
Per cent
|
|
Change since: |
|
Level as at |
|
|
31 Jan 2008 |
End Oct 2007 |
End Jul 2007 |
| Cash rate |
6.75 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
| Small business |
|
|
|
| Term loans |
|
|
|
| Residentially secured |
9.07 |
0.50 |
0.77 |
| Other security |
9.67 |
0.50 |
0.78 |
| Overdraft |
|
|
|
| Residentially secured |
9.79 |
0.57 |
0.85 |
| Other security |
10.69 |
0.57 |
0.85 |
| Average actual rate(a) |
9.31 |
0.50 |
0.73 |
| Large business |
|
|
|
| Average actual rate(a) |
7.64 |
0.42 |
0.73 |
|
| (a) RBA estimate |
| Sources: APRA; Cannex; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 13: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
|
Quarterly |
Year-ended |
|
|
|
|
September
quarter 2007 |
December
quarter 2007 |
September
quarter 2007 |
December
quarter 2007 |
|
| CPI |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
| – Tradables |
0.2 |
0.3 |
–0.3 |
1.4 |
– Tradables (ex food
and petrol) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
| – Non-tradables |
1.1 |
1.3 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
| Underlying measures |
|
|
|
|
| Weighted median |
1.0 |
1.1 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
| Trimmed mean |
0.9 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
| CPI ex volatile items(a) |
0.7 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
|
| (a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
|
Year to December 2008 |
Year to December 2009 |
|
|
|
|
August
2007 |
November
2007 |
February
2008 |
February
2008 |
|
| Market economists(a) |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
| Union officials(b) |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
|
| (a) RBA survey |
| (b) Workplace Research Centre |
.................................................................................................................................. |
Table 15: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
|
Sep
2007 |
Dec
2007 |
June
2008 |
Dec
2008 |
June
2009 |
Dec
2009 |
June
2010 |
|
| GDP |
4.3 |
3½ |
3¼ |
3¼ |
3 |
3 |
3 |
| Non-farm GDP |
4.5 |
3¾ |
2¾ |
2¾ |
2¾ |
3 |
3 |
| Consumer price index |
1.9 |
3.0 |
3½ |
3½ |
3¼ |
3¼ |
3 |
| Underlying inflation |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3¾ |
3½ |
3¼ |
3¼ |
3 |
|
| (a) Actual GDP data to September 2007 and actual inflation data to December 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.89, TWI at 69, cash rate at 7.0 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$86 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel. |
| Sources: ABS; RBA |
|
