RESEARCH DISCUSSION PAPERS

A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy

Meredith Beechey, Nargis Bharucha, Adam Cagliarini, David Gruen, Christopher Thompson

RDP2000-05

June 2000

This paper presents a small model of the Australian macroeconomy. The model is empirically based, aggregate in nature and consists of five estimated equations - for non-farm output, the real exchange rate, import prices, unit labour costs and consumer prices. The stylised facts underlying each equation are discussed and estimation results are presented. The model’s primary use is to examine macroeconomic developments over the short to medium term, although it also has a well-defined steady state in the longer run with appropriate theoretical properties. Dynamic responses of the model to monetary policy changes and selected shocks are illustrated in the paper.